Gulf producers could recover about 70%. lost oil production in three months and approximately 88 percent within six months, Goldman Sachs said. The bank warns that a prolonged closure increases the risk of a permanent deterioration in supplies. Moreover, prospects vary from country to country.
The bank estimated that about 14.5 million barrels of crude oil per day was unavailable in the Persian Gulf in April, mainly due to preventive closures and inventory management rather than physical damage to oil reserves.
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Oil production in the Persian Gulf. When will it return to normal? Strait of Hormuz
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Adam Ziemienowicz / PAP / photos
Goldman Sachs said a safe and lasting reopening of the strait, absent renewed attacks on oil infrastructure, would allow production to return relatively quickly. supported by spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, any recovery will be limited by logistics and well performance. Available empty tanker capacity in the Persian Gulf has fallen by about 130 million barrels, or 50%, limiting how quickly producers can move oil once exports resume, the bank said.
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Oil production in the Persian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq
Long-term well closures are also a problem. Goldman Sachs said the longer production is cut, the slower the recovery process will be.
Reconstruction prospects vary from country to country, with Iran and Iraq face greater risks due to deposit characteristics, infrastructure issues and sanctions, while Saudi Arabia could increase production faster.
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Oil price
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil flows under normal conditions, so prolonged disruptions have significant consequences for global energy markets.
Brent crude oil futures cost approximately $105 on Friday evening. per barrel. In turn, the price of American WTI crude oil is USD 95. Before the US and Israel attacked Iran, oil cost about $70.
