Expert: in optimistic scenarios, a new WIG20 peak will take place in a week or two. For now, blue chips are gaining momentum
Despite good readings from the Polish economy, the mood on the domestic stock exchange was influenced more by expectations for a breakthrough in diplomacy trying to end the US war with Iran.
At the close of the session, WIG20 fell by 0.73%. Broad WIG decreased by 0.63%. Medium-sized companies fared even worse – mWIG40 fell by 1.22%. The bright spot was sWIG80which gained 0.3%. Turnover on WIG amounted to PLN 1.8 billion, of which PLN 1.38 billion related to WIG20.
In Europe, the mood was similar. At the end of trading in Warsaw, the German DAX lost 0.5%, and the London FTSE 100 fell by 1.12%, while the Paris CAC40 dropped by 0.9%.. Overseas, the indexes were slightly positive. The S&P500 rose 0.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.2%.
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Strong data is not enough, but WIG20 at a new peak is possible
Investors were clearly waiting for what the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad will bring. However, tensions rose, especially when US President Donald Trump said on CNBC on Tuesday that he expected to bomb Iran if the parties failed to reach an agreement.
Meanwhile, domestic investors received a solid package of data from the Polish economy. Industrial production in March rose by 9.4% year-on-year, crushing expectations, and construction also surprised on the upside. In the labor market, the average salary increased by 6.6% in March. YoY slightly exceeding forecasts. The broad market, in turn, is looking to Washington, where the candidate for the new head of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, will appear before the Senate on Tuesday.
“Markets are very focused on the Middle East. On the one hand, the truce ends today, and on the other hand, there are reports that the parties are going to Islamabad to continue negotiations. And basically all investors' attention is focused on these negotiations. We see the markets stopping, but with a slight note of concern,” Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy, told PAP Biznes.
“After the strong rebound and exit of WIG on ATH, we have stabilization at the peaks and are waiting for an impulse, either a macro impulse or one coming from companies. The behavior of banks, as well as Orlen and KGHM, will be important. It seems that European and Polish banks have good momentum and this stabilizes WIG quotations,” Sobiesław Kozłowski, director of the investment advisory department at Ipopema Private Investments, told PAP Biznes in a comment to the session.
“At the turn of April and May, I assume that WIG20 will reach the level of 3,700 points in the base scenario, and even up to 4,000 points in the optimistic scenario. For now, I see no reasons to change my approach,” he added.
KGHM under pressure from silver and JP Morgan
In the WIG20 portfolio again KGHM shares weighed the most (-4.41%), where the strong decline was supported, as on Mondaythe highest turnover on the entire market (PLN 215 million). The reduction in the price of the copper giant is mainly due to approximately 4%. silver depreciation. There was also information on the market that JP Morgan lowered its recommendation to “neutral” with a target price of PLN 310. The banking sector also performed poorly, led by mBank (-2.91%), but all large WIG20 banks were in decline. The biggest decline, but with a low weight in the index, were the shares of Modivo (former CCC), which were reduced by as much as 6.68%. The postponement of the publication date of the annual report could have cast a shadow on investors' attitude towards the company.
Despite this, the rest of the consumer companies performed much better. Dino's share price (-1.11%) decreased in this respect, but Żabka Group's price was neutral (0.0%), Allegro's share price increased by 0.21%, Pepco gained 1.24% and LPP increased by 1.59%. Share prices of Kęty, Budimex, Kruk and CD Projekt were still positive in WIG20.
Digital transcripts, Diagnostics results and new 11bit projects
In the lower segments of the market, it has achieved a spectacular return
Cyfrowy Polsatwhich, despite early declines caused by information about write-offs totaling over PLN 2.7 billion, ended the session with an increase of 5.33%. Investors must have read that the write-offs are non-cash and do not affect the group's consolidated EBITDA or the current operations and operating results of the company and the group.
In the mWIG40 index Diagnostics came under pressure (-6.32%).
The company reported net profit for the fourth quarter clearly below the market consensus, which overshadowed the information about the planned dividend of PLN 4.4 per share.
In the sWIG80 index b11 bit studios (17.17%) became the hero of the appeal. Investors reacted enthusiastically to the announcement of new projects from the “Frostpunk” universe and the lower-than-expected net loss. It is worth remembering, however, that this is a reflection of the company, whose share price is still close to 70% in the last two years. below the line.
The correction was made by Friday's debutant, i.e Creotech Quantum. After increasing by over 110% in two days, the quantum company's price fell by 14.18% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Niewiadów Group debuted on the WSE after switching from NewConnect, and its price on the main market dropped by 4.41%.
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