A prolonged war in the Middle East will have very severe consequences for Iran's economy. This is visible in the first estimates of losses to date.
As “Rzeczpospolita” reports, citing calculations Israeli daily “Maariv”, during the first six weeks of the war, Iran lost from 140 to 145 billion dollars. These estimates were based on satellite images of destroyed industrial plants and infrastructure.
Official government estimates are even higher. Fatemeh Mohajerani, spokeswoman for the government of Iran, said: that total economic losses, both direct and indirect, amount to at least $270 billion.
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It is worth noting that before the conflict broke out, the International Monetary Fund forecasted that Iran's GDP will amount to $375.6 billion this year. Such serious losses mean that Iran would fall in the world economic rankings from a position between Egypt and Portugal to the level of Qatar or Ukraine.
The scale of destruction in industry
The New York Times also presented its calculations. They rely on information from anonymous Iranian officials and economists. In this case, the estimates are even higher. The Journal estimates that Iran's losses may reach up to $1 trillion.
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Experts emphasize that attacks on the largest petrochemical complexes and steelworks, employing over 200,000 people in total, were particularly severe. people. They indicate that the consequences of these impacts may be long-term, and the number of people who will lose their jobs as a result may reach one million.
Naval blockade and its effects
While the United States has not directly attacked Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, it could seriously harm the sector through a naval blockade.
It is estimated, as we read in “Rzeczpospolita”, that such a blockade could cost Iran approximately $276 million. per day due to lost exports and disrupted imports worth USD 159 million. daily.
Iran has so far exported 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, and blocking transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the port of Jask may lead to the warehouses being full within two weeks. As a consequence, oil wells may be closed, which may result in their permanent degradation.
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Analysts predict that forced well closures could reduce oil production by as much as 300,000–500,000. barrels per day.
Currency situation and inflation
Iran's economy was already in a difficult situation before the war. “Rzeczpospolita” reminds that the country regularly experienced mass social protests, and one of the main reasons was the depreciation of the national currency and rising inflation.
At the beginning of 2025, 1 dollar was worth 817,500 rials, while at the beginning of 2026 the rate increased to 1,350,000 rials. On the day of the outbreak of the war, February 28, the rate reached a record 1,720,500 rials, and in mid-April it was close to 1,600,000 rials, according to data from Bonbast.com.
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In response to the crisis, the regime issued a 10-million-riyal banknote and introduced severe restrictions on ATM withdrawals – banks allow withdrawals of $18-30 per day.
