Unexpected development in US-Iran peace talks. What can happen this week itself, the key sticking points have been revealed

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a major sticking point in negotiations between the US and Iran, a person familiar with the talks told NBC News on Tuesday. Iran's nuclear capability is another sticking point, a second source said.

A new round of face-to-face negotiations between delegations from Washington and Tehran could take place as early as this week, the two people familiar with the ongoing negotiations told the US television station.

The new information comes after talks led by US Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan over the weekend failed to reach a peace deal to end the war. Both Vance and President Donald Trump on Monday offered hope for further negotiations, even as US forces launched a blockade that prevents ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

Opening the Strait of Hormuz to free shipping is a major sticking point in negotiations for any kind of deal, one of the people said. Iran's nuclear capability is another sticking point, the second person said.

The US asked Iran during marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan last weekend, for a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, the second source said. Tehran agreed to three to five years, which Trump said was not acceptable, the second person said.

The United States has also asked Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, but Iran has agreed to a “monitored dilution process” — meaning a process in which highly enriched, more dangerous uranium is mixed with natural or less enriched uranium to make less highly enriched material, according to a second source familiar with the ongoing negotiations.

A US official told NBC News that there is an ongoing dialogue between the US and Iran and that progress is being made in trying to reach an agreement.

The White House is betting heavily on the success of diplomatic negotiations, as polls show that American voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the conflict with Iran, amid inflation and rising gas prices. The president's political advisers are looking ahead to the midterm elections in November, when Republicans will fight to keep their slim margin in the House of Representatives and maintain their advantage in the Senate.

Direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations in Washington

Israel and Lebanon are holding face-to-face talks in Washington on Tuesday, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also attending, according to a State Department official.

The high-level talks between Israel and Lebanon are the first since 1993, the official said.

The Iranian-backed Shiite militant group Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel in early March in a show of solidarity with Iran after the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic on February 28. For its part, Israel retaliated with attacks on the territory of Lebanon, which caused the death of more than 2,000 people.

“This discussion will focus on the ongoing dialogue on how to ensure the long-term security of Israel's northern border and support the determination of the Government of Lebanon to regain full sovereignty over its territory and political life,” the State Department official said. “Israel is at war with Hezbollah, not Lebanon, so there is no reason why the two neighbors cannot talk,” he said

JD Vance: “Ball in the court” of the Iranians

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Vance said there had been some “constructive discussions” with Tehran during the talks in the Pakistani capital.

Asked if further negotiations could follow, he said the question should be “best addressed to the Iranians, because the ball is actually in their court.”

He added that there was “an important deal to be made” but that it was up to Tehran to “take the next step”.

“The only real way” to solve the crisis

Trump said the US had been contacted by “the right people, the right people, and they want to make a deal.” A day earlier, he said he did not “care” if Iran returned to the negotiating table.

“Despite all the threats, both sides would like to reduce tensions,” Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of “Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy,” said in a telephone interview Tuesday. “I don't think anyone wants a further escalation of the conflict.”

“There is a recognition that despite all the gestures of force, both on the ground, with the blockade and through the war of words, the only real way to resolve this situation is through negotiations,” he said.

“We must get enriched uranium out of Iran”

Vance said the main sticking point in the Islamabad talks centered on Iran's uranium enrichment.

“We need to get the enriched material out of Iran,” he said, adding: “We need to get their firm commitment not to develop a nuclear weapon.”

Vance said Tehran had shown some flexibility in talks late last week but “didn't make enough concessions.”

With the possibility of new talks on the horizon, Vance said, “If the Iranians are willing to meet us there, then that can be a very, very good deal for both countries. If they're not willing to meet us there, that's their decision.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, has estimated that Iran has nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium (about 453 kilograms), enough for 11 nuclear weapons.

Tehran maintains that its highly enriched uranium remains buried underground after US airstrikes targeted its enrichment facilities last year. It insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention of obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Iran's armed forces have accused the US of “piracy” through the imposed blockade and have threatened Persian Gulf ports if their own ports are hit.

But despite the risks of an intensification of the confrontation in the area of ​​the Strait of Hormuz, the two-week truce in the conflict appears to be holding.

Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon are holding face-to-face talks in Washington on Tuesday, a rare event, in an effort to defuse another flashpoint of tension that threatens the accord.

Israel has invaded southern Lebanon and attacked its neighbor with airstrikes, which included an intense day of bloody bombing of Beirut last week.

Hezbollah, which launched attacks on Israel last month in solidarity with Tehran, urged the Lebanese government to pull out of the talks in Washington.

The United States and Israel have insisted that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have said it is.

Tehran blames the US for the failure of the negotiations

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the US for the failure of the Islamabad round of peace talks, citing what he described as excessive demands and a lack of political will on the part of senior US officials.

All these factors were obstacles to a possible agreement, Pezeshkian said in a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, according to the DPA and Agerpres agencies.

“Despite the understandings reached by the two sides at the expert level, excessive demands and a lack of political will on the part of senior American officials prevented an agreement,” Pezeshkian said, stressing that diplomacy remains Iran's preferred path, with full respect for its national dignity and sovereignty.

Stock markets were higher and oil prices fell on Tuesday morning on hopes of a deal to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Donald Trump assured that the Iranians wanted a deal with the US.

“I can tell you that the other camp has called us. They would like to make a deal at any cost,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday.

Trump started the war against Iran by claiming that Tehran was developing an atomic bomb – which Iran denies – and vowing that he would never allow the country to possess a nuclear weapon.