“I believe that Ukraine is in a much better situation today than ever before during this terrible war,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Monday during a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
He noted that the first year of the war was a fight for survival, the next three years were a time of extraordinary resilience, and he described the year 2025 as “mathematics”. “What I mean by that is that Ukraine is dominant from a military standpoint right now,” Stubb emphasized.
To support his claims, he cited growing Russian losses and the increasing role of drones in modern warfare.
— Since December, Ukrainians have killed about 35,000 people. Russian soldiers per month, he said. — Russia is not able to recruit enough people to make up for the 35,000. Ninety-five percent these losses are the result of drones, he added.
Stubb also noted the huge difference in casualties on both sides. — Currently, the ratio is one to five. For one [poległego] There are five Russian soldiers per Ukrainian soldier, he explained.
According to Stubb, the Kremlin paid a high price for small territorial gains. — In 2025, Russia won less than one percent. territory for the price of PLN 400,000. victims, Stubb said. — Currently, the loss rate is approximately 150–157 deaths per square kilometer.
Drone models at an exhibition of the latest Ukrainian-made weapons and military equipment at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev, Ukraine, April 13, 2026.PAP/EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO / PAP
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. “We are working on three scenarios for this year”
Despite a more optimistic assessment of the situation in Ukraine, Stubb also stated that the most likely scenario for this year assumes a continuation of the war.
“We are currently working on three scenarios for this year,” he explained. — The first is the continuation of the war. The second is to make peace. The third is when one side is weakened by external circumstances – whether it's a war with Iran, a withdrawal by either side, or a collapse of the Russian economy, whatever that may be.
In his opinion, the first variant remains the most realistic.
“Our most likely scenario today is that the war will continue,” Stubb said. — That's why I think we need to prepare for another winter.
The growing scope of Ukraine
Stubb pointed out that Ukraine's growing ability to strike deep into Russian territory is also a reason for optimism.
— This is the second reason why I currently see justification for Ukrainian optimism, he said. — In March, more drones and missiles flew from Ukraine to Russia than from Russia to Ukraine.
He cited attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and missile production plants as examples of Ukraine's growing capabilities.
— Despite the increase in oil prices, Ukraine has hit Russia's oil export infrastructure, seriously weakening the financing of the Russian war machine, he stressed. “They also hit factories producing Iskander missiles,” Stubb added.
The President of Finland argued that Ukraine has developed the ability to hit targets at long range on a scale that seemed unattainable until recently.
— I am not saying that they no longer need Tomahawks, but we often forget that in modern warfare, the Ukrainians have achieved the ability to hit targets located 1,000, 2,000 and even 3,000 km away, he said.
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“Trump card” in the hands of Ukraine
Stubb also emphasized that Ukraine's expertise in drones, missiles and air defense extends far beyond Europe.
— Ukrainians still have, so to speak, the “Trump card,” Stubb said. – And this card is the question: how should the Persian Gulf countries defend themselves? Can they do it themselves without Ukrainian knowledge in the field of air defense, missiles and drones? The answer is no, he added.
This, in his opinion, gives Washington a strong reason to continue to engage in helping Ukraine. “So there's some bartering going on here, and I'm convinced it makes sense for the United States to stay involved,” Stubb said.
— Let me go a step further and say that Ukraine's current ability to wage war is at such a level that only one country in the alliance [NATO] can be compared to it, and this is the United States, he added.
– So I wonder whether we shouldn't look at American or European aid for Ukraine not as a gesture of altruism, but rather as the fact that we need Ukraine more than it needs us, he concluded.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
