Is the US winning or losing in Iran? George W. Bush adviser's arguments: “Imaginary lines are invented”
Michael Doran, a former adviser to George W. Bush, considers the achievements of the Iran war important enough to declare it a victory, although Trump's opponents portray it as an embarrassing defeat.
Iran's South Pars gas field refinery on fire. PHOTO: Profimedia
Former White House adviser in the George W. Bush administration and expert at the Hudson Institute, Michael Doran argues that the US-Israeli alliance has achieved a consistent strategic victory against Iran, although many other experts argue the exact opposite. In an analysis made as part of the “Israel Update” podcast with Gadi Taub, Doran points out that the survival of the regime in Tehran should not be confused with its triumph.
At a time when, in the context of talks sparked by the controversial truce between the United States and Iran, the public debate in Israel and the United States seems divided between what Michael Doran calls “cheerful defeatism” and a cold analysis of the new reality on the ground, he believes that the Americans have achieved what would be called a real victory, even if not a total one.
What the US has gained and what Iran has gained
Moreover, in his opinion those who question the success of the US military campaign by the simple fact that Iran has not capitulated are making a major mistake. This is because, says Michael Doran, the analysis should not be made through the lens of whether or not the regime in Tehran has capitulated unconditionally, but through the destruction or at least the degradation of Iran's military capability. The scenario of a capitulation is actually unlikely in the modern era, in his view.
“Iran has definitely gained the ability to say that the Islamic Republic has withstood the joint attack of the United States and Israel. We have given the soldiers of this generation of the IRGC the honor of fighting the 'Great Satan' to survive. It is absolutely true. But Gadi, this is a victory for the United States and Israel. It really is. This is what victory in the Middle East looks like: the enemy says that because it survived, it won“, emphasizes Doran.
Michael Doran believes that while Iran was a threat earlier this year, today its offensive and defensive capabilities are only a shadow of what they were until recently. Referring to the military achievements of the US-Israeli offensive, he points to the removal of leadership from Tehran, the destruction of air defenses and the striking of critical Iranian infrastructure.
The Myth of the “Merry Defeatist”
Michael Doran and Taub also talk about so-called gleeful defeatism, or “jubilant defeatism,” specific, they say, to the media that loathe Donald Trump and the political opposition in general. It would be a phenomenon in which Donald Trump's enemies have made a habit of celebrating any apparent failure of the Trump or Netanyahu administrations, even if it undermines national interests.
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“There is a hard-to-hide glee at what they call the collapse of the dreams sold by Netanyahu and Trump. They see their main battle as against Netanyahu and have adopted the Hamas strategy of breaking Israel by manipulating the hostage issue“, said Gadi Thab.
Michael Doran did not miss the moment and complemented his discussion partner. “It is amazing how many analysts in the US and Europe seem to align themselves with the Iranian narrative. They ignore the fact that we are in a much better situation today than on October 7, 2023. Definitely, much better,” he added.
On talks of a 14-day ceasefire, Doran is skeptical that it could lead to lasting peace given the conditions imposed by Donald Trump. He believes that negotiations are, in fact, a test of will.
“Trump has made it clear: You don't know what the real points of the deal are. I know them… If it's not good, we go back to war very easily. It will be very difficult for Trump to accept that Iran toll the passage through the Strait of Hormuz or allow them to enrich uranium. It's a tough negotiation,” he adds.
Attack on the “Oslo mentality”
On the other hand, even if Iran was the beneficiary of a temporary truce, Lebanon remained the theater of active confrontation. Here, the two political scientists are critical of the military who avoid “finishing the job”. Doran and Taub believe this is the result of an outdated mindset of the military's upper echelon.
“We have a problem with a General Staff that has been educated in the spirit of Oslo. Imaginary lines of retreat are being invented. Instead of destroying Hezbollah bases from the air, soldiers are forced to go from house to house. This is costing unnecessary human lives in order to appear before the tribunals in The Hague.”Taub interjected.
Michael Doran praised Donald Trump's firmness and said it was unlikely the US would ever allow Tehran to tax shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Trump said, basically quoting you, Gadi, 'You don't know what the points are. I know what they are. They're very good points and most of them have been fully negotiated. They're not the maximalist demands that Iran is claiming. If it's not good, we're going to go back to this at war]very easily.' uranium. Beyond that, I don't know. But these two things I think are very difficult for him to accept.” he added.
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Why the win against Iran is important
Moreover, Doran believes, if Trump had allowed Iran to continue its aggression and pursue its plans to obtain nuclear weapons without a devastating response, the entire American-led international order would have been compromised in the face of China and Russia.
“Iran is not a new center of global power, as some naïve professors claim. Global powers do not operate like mafia-type extortion rings. Donald Trump has shown that when vital US interests are existentially threatened, America will act to eliminate the threat.”
Doran's message is clear: victory is real, but it requires a winning mentality to bring it to fruition politically, as opposed to that of “joyful defeatists” who gloat about their own country's imaginary failures simply because they loathe Donald Trump.
