On Wednesday, a wave of growth swept across global markets. Stock prices rose significantly and treasury bond yields fell (i.e. their prices rose). The currencies of developing countries also went up due to the weakening of the dollar. However, crude oil has been significantly depreciated because the market is counting on the effective unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the supply crisis of this raw material.
However, the price of gold may be a bit disappointing for enthusiasts of this precious metal. At the end of the session on Wednesday, the price increased by only 0.3%, to $4,719. per ounce, although at one point in the middle of the day it was rising 3.2% to $4,857.6, which was the highest level since March 19. On Thursday morning, the rate dropped slightly and then increased slightly. Before noon it increased by 0.15%, to $4,727. per ounce.
The price of gold fluctuated greatly in March and April
Let us recall that gold prices have fluctuated greatly in recent weeks. After the outbreak of war in the Middle East (the US and Israel attacked Iran), it seemed that the ore would be a good safe haven. And in fact, in the first reaction its prices went up significantly: temporarily they reached around $5,418. per ounce (i.e. slightly below the all-time high of $5,595 recorded at the end of January).
See also: Euphoria after the truce in the Middle East. A record was broken on the Warsaw Stock Exchange
Later, however, there were significant declines. At one point – on Monday, March 23 – the rate dropped to $4,101, the lowest level since mid-November 2025. This meant a drop of almost 27%. from January's historic highs.
Let's get back to the current situation – gold prices have gone up by 7.8% over 10 sessions, so one could be tempted to say that this market was waiting for some de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East (another explanation for the increases from previous sessions is the fear of Donald Trump's ultimatum). In such a scenario, the relatively weak behavior of the exchange rate after the ceasefire was announced may be a manifestation of the “buy rumors, sell facts” phenomenon. Perhaps players on this market do not believe as strongly as investors operating on the stock or oil markets in the durability of the agreement.
Safe Haven was out of breath
Why – since gold is usually associated with an instrument intended to protect property against such extraordinary situations as war – should de-escalation favor the precious metal? This case is specific because the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the main economic impact of which is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (key for the export of energy resources such as oil and gas), resulted in a sharp increase in commodity prices. This has stoked fears of a return to inflation.
See also: What's happening to the gold price? Expert: the myth has been busted
This caused the market to start pricing in interest rate increases by central banks around the world, and in the case of the USA, their expected scale was reduced and the date of easing was postponed. These phenomena adversely affected the price of gold: the higher interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold, which – unlike bonds – does not pay interest. In other words: a drop in interest rates creates favorable conditions for gold prices. The reversal of this mechanism, i.e. de-escalation, return of expectations of rate cuts in the US and the weakening of the dollar should theoretically support gold prices.
Gold price in the last three months.
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Stooq, own study
The price of gold converted into the Polish currency on Thursday morning increased by almost 0.3%, to PLN 17,274 per ounce. This means that it is 12 percent. below the historical peak (PLN 19,639) recorded in January.
