Critical moment for the regime in Budapest: Viktor Orbán's war-themed strategy seems to be neutralized by Péter Magyar's campaign. According to international relations expert Miroslav Tașcu-Stavre, although the current prime minister is resorting to manipulation of emotions and possible “false flag” tactics, the polls reflect the success of Magyar's pro-European messages, propelling him to a leading position in the electorate's preferences for the elections on Sunday, April 12.
Viktor Orban has been in government for 16 years PHOTO EPA-EFE
Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday could end Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. The strategy of isolating opponents like Volodymyr Zelensky or the EU has proved disastrous for the Budapest leader.
The specialist in foreign policy Miroslav Tașcu Stavre explained for aruduin.ro the mechanisms by which the theme of the war was electorally instrumentalized through videos and images that defied logic. Although there is currently the question of NATO member countries actively participating in the defense of Ukraine, Viktor Orban's campaign was based on such images and emotions.
War, fear and the construction of a political narrative
Out of the desire to make the sovereignist message transparent, the current prime minister of Hungary illustrated in messages, promo clips and posters an alternative to reality in which the Hungarian people are attacked and pushed into a war with devastating effects.
“It was really one of the main themes, the theme of war. And somehow Viktor Orban presented himself as the only leader capable of keeping Hungary out of the conflict in Ukraine. And he constantly accused the so-called wartime bureaucrats of being pro-war.
Not only President Zelenski was portrayed, in many election posters he was alongside Ursula von der Leyen. And somehow the two themes, that of the war that Hungary would be drawn into if it went along with Brussels, were somehow doubled by the rather sovereignist vision and the criticism it brought to the European Union. Especially defending Orban and his party, traditional Christian values against the gender ideology of the globalists, and of course the migration that has been imposed by external forces.”
Viktor Orban's campaign strategy comes as a continuation of his policy of moving away from European values. Hungary has blocked strategic EU decisions in recent years, from sanctions against Russia to the budget and aid for Ukraine, and a change in government could remove that veto, speeding up decisions on support for Kiev, Union enlargement and tax reforms.
“Viktor Orban knows very well how to speculate on matters that are more about emotions and feelings. And the whole campaign built on that model. Anyone who is afraid of war and what it means to destroy. And then he tried to say, look, he's going to draw us to war, take us to war.”
Peter Magyar PHOTO FB
Attack on Hungary's energy infrastructure classified as a “false flag”
Orban is fighting for the last hundred meters with all the institutional means he controls. He called an emergency meeting of the National Defense Council after explosives were found near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary, but the idea that he might declare a state of emergency or influence voters is not borne out by most independent polls.
“I think it was a very well-crafted thing. Probably if he had caught it better, Viktor Orban would have even had the opportunity to trigger a crisis and institute a state of emergency and postpone the election. Because as the polls show, Péter Magyar's Party is between 51 and 56% while Viktor Orban is far behind, 31-35%, all the independent polls say. It is very true that a blow came, it was not expected, although in the first phase President Vučić, who has a friendly relationship with the President of Serbia Viktor Orban, said that he is analyzing and paying attention to what is happening. The message from the head of the Secret Service came that day, who bluntly said that it was not about Ukraine, there was no evidence to point to the involvement of Ukraine in any way, and he explained these things very well.“, says the analyst.
All these strategies turned against the Hungarian leader, Miroslav Stavre also states.
“These kinds of narratives have been very well countered by TISZA and Péter Magyar, who have used social media heavily, given that the media in Hungary is mostly controlled by the government. So I would say that this weapon has been turned against his rule. I think that matters a lot for Hungarians, who are going through a prolonged crisis.”
Hungary in the EU again in the foreground
The first thing he says Péter Magyar will do if he becomes prime minister is to renew the relationship with the European Union.
“The European Union has blocked Hungary's funds, on matters related to the rule of law. Moreover, if they get a majority of 2-3, they will be able to change the Constitution again, the Constitution which was one of the reasons why the European Union suspended funds for Hungary, considering that it no longer fulfills the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary, while it is under political control.”
A change in time, Sunday's vote just a first step
Viktor Orban's career involves constant control over decades. The change of power in Budapest is a phased process that will involve replacements at all levels, from the heads of the secret services to the independence of the judiciary and the leadership of the prosecutor's offices, but the opposition has as its speech precisely this approach.
“It would be a strong signal if the structure of the parliament will be different and if what Péter Magyar said and promised in the campaign, I will quote a few from memory, anti-corruption and the rule of law were among the things that Péter Magyar said he would dismantle, this captured state, basically, which was created during the Orban administration. The much needed reconciliation with the European Union. In economic terms, I found it very interesting because it not only positioned itself as an alternative to Orban, but also to the old opposition, trying to capitalize on the disaffected. On the one hand it speaks of a third way.
So they are also FIDESZ voters, they are also rather left-wing voters. And yes, it won't be easy, but it would still be an important decisive step for Hungary to return to the ranks of European states, to be one that blocks the decisions of the Union and to have access to European funds and the prosperity that Hungarians have been taught, at least before the last term that ends now“, says the analyst.
If the poll numbers are confirmed, Hungary could go from one of the staunchest anti-Brussels governments to a pro-European majority that will once again become a voice at the EU level.
