How did Pakistan manage to negotiate a ceasefire between Iran and the United States? “One of the greatest diplomatic successes in recent years”

While the world was preparing for the worst, Pakistan proved to be a key mediator between Iran and the United States, securing a temporary truce with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, to host on Friday, in Islamabad, and negotiations aimed at ending the war in the Middle East, writes AFP on Wednesday in an analysis of the diplomatic efforts made in the last hours of the ultimatum given to Tehran by Donald Trump.

“Pakistan has achieved one of the biggest diplomatic successes in recent years,” Michael Kugelman, an American foreign policy expert specializing in South Asian issues, wrote on X.

“It also proved wrong the many skeptics and critics who didn't believe it had the ability to carry out such a complex and risky mission,” Kugelman said.

“Pakistan has strong assets”

“Pakistan has solid assets, being the only country in the region that maintains good relations with both the United States and Iran,” said the country's former ambassador to Tehran, Asif Durrani.

Pakistan shares a 900 kilometer border with Iran, enough to bind deep historical, cultural and religious ties. Tehran was the first to recognize Pakistan after its independence in 1947. Islamabad did the same with the Islamic Republic after the 1979 revolution.

Their cooperation included fighting against Moscow during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The two countries are also concerned about the activities of cross-border armed groups in the Baluchistan region.

Pakistani diplomacy also represents Iranian diplomatic interests in Washington, where Tehran does not have an embassy, ​​AFP points out.

Pakistan is home to the second largest Shia Muslim population in the world after Iran.

The personal relationship between Munir and Trump

Pakistan's powerful army chief, Marshal Asim Munir, has established a personal relationship with US President Donald Trump. Munir traveled to Washington with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif last year after hostilities with India.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi welcomed the role played by Sharif and the Pakistani army chief in mediating the negotiations, expressing his “gratitude and appreciation” for their efforts, Bloomberg notes.

Pakistan's prime minister hailed the leader's “bold and visionary” intervention at the White House, while Munir backed his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions for preventing an escalation of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan knows Iran “better than most”, Donald Trump has said. Their personal relationships have long contributed to the strengthening of bilateral ties shaped by shifting strategic interests.

Even as a major non-NATO ally in the “war on terror,” Pakistan has been accused by the United States of harboring jihadists responsible for attacks on coalition troops in Afghanistan.

Relations were further strained when US troops killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil in 2011 without informing Islamabad.

On the other hand, Pakistan was accused of complicity in harboring the fugitive, the author of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Between the Shiites and the Saudis

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic mutual defense agreement last year that strengthened long-standing ties but also restricted Islamabad's room for maneuver in supporting Tehran.

The Sharif government has been soft on Riyadh, where the prime minister recently traveled for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Pakistan also maintains close ties with Beijing, which Donald Trump believes helped persuade Iran to come to the negotiating table after the US president's most dramatic threats since the war began in late February.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hosted a meeting with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt last month to discuss de-escalating the conflict, then flew to Beijing for further talks.

China, which is Iran's number one trading partner, then joined its long-time South Asian ally in calling for a plan to end the chaos-inducing fighting in the Middle East, with reverberations around the world, saying it supported Pakistan's “unique and important role in calming the situation”.

Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal following a last-minute intervention by China, which called on the Islamic Republic to show flexibility and ease tensions, three Iranian sources told The New York Times.

Asked to comment on reports that Beijing had urged Iran to accept a ceasefire, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington told CNN that since the start of the conflict, China had “made efforts to contribute to the ceasefire and the end of the conflict”.

What interest does Pakistan have?

Neutrality is economically important for Pakistan, which depends on hydrocarbon imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Continued hostilities would have strained fuel supplies, pushed up prices and forced the Sharif government, which is already facing a financial crisis, to impose further austerity measures.

If the war were to end for good, it would bolster not only regional stability but also Pakistan's international prestige, at a time when the country is engaged in an armed conflict with Afghanistan, and less than a year after exchanging blows with its arch-rival India.

What is the next step?

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he would receive American and Iranian delegations in the capital starting Friday.

“Iran will feel more at ease in Islamabad, that's why it accepted Pakistan's mediation,” explains Durrani, the former ambassador, adding that Pakistan could help the two sides resolve outstanding disputes.

If the negotiations were direct, “then Pakistan could help the parties refine their discourse in the event of an impasse,” he indicated, adding that Pakistani officials could also act as mediators if the two camps refused to meet face-to-face.

Israel has announced that it supports Donald Trump's decision to suspend attacks against Iran, while specifying that the truce does not include Lebanon.

This statement contradicts an earlier announcement by the Pakistani prime minister, a mediator in the conflict, who assured that the ceasefire applies “everywhere, including Lebanon”.