CPN until February 2027? A sensational forecast by Credit Agricole experts

Credit Agricole economists predict that the government may extend intervention in the fuel market even until February 2027. They presented their forecast in the weekly “MakroMapa” published on Tuesday.

The “Fuel Prices Lower” (CPN) package adopted by the government is temporary.

“However, in our scenario we assume that the government will decide to maintain the intervention – perhaps in a partially modified formula – until the end of February 2027.” – said Credit Agricole economists.

According to them, if the liberalization of fuel prices took place in March 2027, it would have a limited impact on inflation year-on-year. This is because the strong increase in fuel prices in March 2026 means a high base from which price increases in this category will be calculated.

As part of the CPN package, maximum prices for gasoline and diesel oil were introduced, announced daily by the Minister of Energy. In addition, the VAT rate on fuels was temporarily reduced – from 23% to 8%. This rate is valid from March 31, 2026 to April 30, 2026. Reduced excise tax on these fuels applies until April 15.

The Ministry of Finance announced that the VAT reduction on fuels will translate into a cost for the budget of approximately PLN 930 million. However, in the case of excise tax reduction, it is approximately PLN 400 million. (PAP)

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