The war with Iran has been going on for over a month. And for over a month, the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, has been virtually impassable. This narrow waterway is crucial to supplying the global economy with oil – about one-fifth of the world's oil flows through Hormuz.
If tankers and freighters stay idle for a long time, energy shortages will appear sooner or later – also in Europe. A new study by the American bank JP Morgan shows: the supply crisis in Europe will happen sooner than expected. The specific date is April 10. In a few days we may face a “critical shortage of gasoline and diesel”. According to the bank, this is when the last oil shipments sent before the outbreak of the war will reach Europe. Later – according to forecasts – imports will practically stop.
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China and India are particularly affected by the situation
However, according to the bank, other regions will suffer even more. Asia and southern Africa have received virtually no new oil supplies since April 1. A particularly difficult situation concerns countries such as China and India, where up to 90 percent they import oil from the Persian Gulf. In South Africa, a decline in oil supplies was recorded already in mid-March.
JP Morgan's homeland, the United States, and Canada will soon feel the effects of the war even more severely. In North America, they are expected to be visible from April 15, especially for diesel imports. Nearly a third of global diesel trade comes from the Middle East. A prolonged paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz could seriously disrupt global infrastructure, agriculture and the transport industry, according to an analysis.
The situation in Switzerland is stable for now
In order to stabilize rapidly rising oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) decided on March 13 to voluntarily release 400 million barrels of oil from the emergency reserves of its member states. Switzerland is also a member of the IEA.
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However, as the Blick daily found out at the time, Switzerland is refraining from releasing its own reserves for now. The Federal Office of Economic Supplies said in response to an inquiry: “Taking into account the country's current, secured supply of petroleum products and the envisaged national flexibility, Switzerland is not participating in the voluntary release of reserves for the time being.”
Currently, the situation in Switzerland is stable. According to the office, the government is monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis and will take action if necessary.
