The first option is for the US to take control of key islands such as Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Little Tunb. They are of great importance to Iran due to their oil infrastructure as well as military and surveillance systems.
According to military analyst John Spencer, this move would help the US take control of the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important energy routes in the world.
The Iranian regime recently introduced a fee of up to $2 million. (PLN 7.4 million) for each tanker passage. This system could be destroyed by attacks on command centers, surveillance equipment and field units.
“Putin's method” – darkness as a weapon
The second scenario is reminiscent of Vladimir Putin's tactics – systematically destroying Iran's power grid in order to plunge the country into total darkness. The goal of this move is clear: to make daily life for Iranians unbearable and force the population to surrender or flee.
There is another aspect to this method – the United States could simultaneously weaken the regime and empower civilians. Spencer argues that disrupting government communications while giving citizens access to other communications networks could turn information into a powerful weapon. Recall that since the protests began in late 2025, the Iranian regime has repeatedly blocked the Internet to quell the unrest.
Strike at the heart of the economy – the key to the fall of the regime?
The third option, which Spencer considers most likely, is a direct attack on Iran's oil sector. The Americans could focus on the island of Khark in the Persian Gulf, through which as much as 90 percent of oil exports from Tehran.
If the US managed to destroy or take over the infrastructure on this island, it would effectively paralyze the regime's economic power.
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Trump stated that he ordered attacks on military targets located on this island two weeks ago. However, American forces have so far been conserving fuel tanks – which may now change.
“If this source of revenue is cut off, the regime could collapse,” Spencer says, adding that the Iranian authorities are already showing signs of weakness under economic pressure.
Donald Trump himself suggested that the United States may attempt to take control of the island of Khark, which is the economic heart of Iran. “We have many options,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, CNN reported that in recent weeks Iran has moved troops and additionally strengthened the island's defense, preparing for a possible US attack. He placed anti-personnel and anti-tank mines along the coast.
Hope for peace?
Trump said he was negotiating with Iran — both directly and indirectly — and that they were going “extremely well.”
“They gave us most of what we asked for. They agreed to the plan. We proposed 15 points and most of them agreed to them, he said, without revealing details.
In a goodwill gesture, Iran last week allowed 10 tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while announcing that another 20 ships would be given the green light.
However, the Iranian authorities denied that they were conducting direct talks with US representatives.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
