Donald Trump needs to withdraw from the war as soon as possible. It's understandable: gasoline prices in the US are rising, ammunition depots are running out, and many former allies are just shaking their heads at the actions in the Persian Gulf.
The quickest way to end a war would be to lose it. But for the US president eager for victory, this is not an option. As he himself announced, he wants to quickly “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.”
This would be followed by a withdrawal – if necessary, also with the current regime in Tehran and despite the blocked Strait of Hormuz. If Trump carries this out, it would not only be dangerous for America, but also disastrous for Europe.
The president doesn't have many alternatives.
Negotiations with the representatives of the new Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, have stalled. A land invasion or even an attack on Iran's Khark oil island would be for the US extremely risky and would drive up oil prices even further. And continuing the current policy would quickly become unfinanceable for Washington. According to the Center for International and Strategic Studies, the war costs American taxpayers over $2 billion. (at the current exchange rate PLN 7.4 billion) per day.
So the only thing left is to withdraw. The problem is that Iran is unlikely to sit still after the Americans withdrew. Massive attacks by the US-Israeli alliance further radicalized the regime.
Still a strong regime in Tehran
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi stressed this week that Iran had learned lessons from previous US wars in the Middle East and decentralized its military structures and weapons storage facilities. Although the attacks on Tehran are very impressive in the media, the regime has not been significantly weakened.
An Iranian military spokesman told the United States after Trump's speech that Iran will continue to fight “until the humiliation and surrender” of its enemies. According to the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, over 7 million Iranians have declared their readiness to continue the fight against America.
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They would be particularly affected Persian Gulf countries. Their business model – stability, security, palm-fringed beaches and luxury – is already seriously damaged. As long as the threat from Iranian drones and missiles persists, investors and tourists will likely turn away.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the economies of Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Kuwait may shrink by 5-14% in 2026 if the war lasts only until the end of the month.
A spilled crisis
For the Gulf region they remain two options: either pressure the Americans to continue the war until the regime is overthrown, or throw the US out with its 40,000-50,000 people. soldiers from the region. So far, Iran has focused its attacks on American bases or hotels where American presence is suspected.
Iran assured the Gulf states that it is ready for constructive cooperation and would be happy to replace the Americans as a power protecting the region. The old US-centric system is no longer fit for purpose, Ghalibaf emphasized. — Together we can create safe, stable conditions for investors, he said.
For the United States, being kicked out of the Persian Gulf would be tantamount to historical humiliation. It would also be doubtful whether, for example, the Saudis will actually implement the promised investments in the US worth $600 billion. (PLN 2.2 trillion) by the end of Trump's term – and will the Qataris really give the American president the promised presidential plane worth $400 million? (PLN 1.4 billion).
For Europe, a premature US withdrawal would be extremely dangerous. The risk of terrorist attacks on American or US-close targets is increasing. Additionally, some Iranian missiles reach as far as Europe. American weapons depots and bases are located, for example, in Stuttgart (Germany), Garmisch (Germany) or at the Ghedi military airfield in Italy.
From Tehran's perspective, these would be legitimate goals, especially if Trump withdraws his troops from the Middle East and Iran seeks retaliation elsewhere.
Just withdraw: that's what Trump can do. But this is unlikely to end the war.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
