Trump intends to announce the imminent end of the war in Iran
With statements in interviews, social media posts and public comments over the past 24 hours, Trump has set the stage for his evening speech. According to five people familiar with the president's plans he intends to announce that all US military objectives in Iran have been achieved. He also plans to blame NATO allies for the biggest unresolved issue of the war: continuing restrictions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist in the White House, said the president would essentially declare victory by outlining his achievements in Iran and his plans in the period before the U.S. withdraws from the country. He also intends to criticize NATO allies – he will say that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “is their problem.”
The president's decision to deliver a major speech on the war as an additional 2,500 U.S. troops are heading to the region may be his attempt to ease voter and stock market concerns about energy prices and the effects of closing the strait.
An attempt to save face
The speech will give Trump an opportunity to outline the war's goals, clarify what he considers a victory and state how he plans to proceed if ceasefire talks fail. Politically, this is a difficult task for the president, given the unpopularity of the Iran war and his own unease with delivering more scripted, formal speeches directly to camera from behind the Resolute Desk [biurko prezydenta Stanów Zjednoczonych znajdujące się w Gabinecie Owalnym Białego Domu w Waszyngtonie].
— This is a big challenge for President Trump because this is not his natural environment. His statement cannot be confrontational. It must be reassuring, one source said. — She also has to be very direct because she communicates [w ten sposób] not only with the Americans, but also with the Iranians, allies in the region and allies in Europe.
Iran continues to block the strait, which has already led to an increase in oil prices above $100. (approx. PLN 370) per barrel. Trump's announcement in such a situation that the end of the war is approaching shows that he is very interested in finding some solution to the conflict he started with Israel 32 days ago. Although the president has not ruled out ordering ground forces to restore free navigation through the strait or seizing Iranian oil supplies, in recent days he has begun to blame European allies for not doing more to unblock it.
Anger directed at NATO
A senior White House official, who asked not to be named, said the president's growing anger “is very real,” especially as European countries, including Italy and Britain, have banned U.S. forces involved in the war with Iran from using their bases and airspace.
A formal withdrawal of the US from NATO would require a vote in the Senate, and there the alliance enjoys strong support, including from members of the Republican Party. Trump, who first threatened to leave the alliance during the 2018 summit, has seen his attitude toward NATO shift from warm to cool. Yes, he has a close relationship with Secretary-General Mark Rutte and praised allies for pledging last year to increase defense spending to reduce the burden on the US.
However, after starting the war with Iran – without consulting European allies – he began to criticize alliance members for not being willing to join the conflict on his side.
“It's like these motherfuckers keep talking about Article 5.”article five, article five, article five, article five. Iran has been landing our soldiers for half a century. We finally reacted, and now he is attacking all our major non-NATO allies and us. And not only do they say they're not going to help us, they're closing their airspace to us, really? — yes, according to a person close to the White House, Trump was supposed to make non-public comments about NATO member states.
Unsubstantiated threats?
— Now not only are they saying they're not going to help, they're also closing their airspace to us. These are not the actions of an ally, the US president allegedly said, according to a person close to the White House
According to another POLITICO source, Trump was frustrated by the lack of support from Europe during a Wednesday telephone conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb. The president of Finland, one of the European leaders with whom Trump has good personal relations, assured him that “a NATO led to a greater extent by Europe is already being formed.”
Europeans, accustomed to Trump's threatening rhetoric and hostile stance – whether imposing tariffs or threatening to take Greenland from Denmark – seem to be taking this latest outburst with reserve.
— Nobody buys the narrative that [Trump] is trying to push on Iran, like, 'I told you Europe won't help us,'” said a senior EU official.
A senior official from a European non-NATO country was also not surprised by Trump's new threat. He suggested that the continent no longer has any doubts about the US president's priorities and his negative view of the transatlantic alliance and its value.
— Possible withdrawal [USA] with NATO is just an attempt to rethink the conditions for providing security guarantees to Europe by the United States, he said. — The United States will no longer protect its allies in the name of common ideology and values, but only for money, economic and political concessions.
