The Americans' 15-point plan, the Iranians' 5-point plan. Donald Trump's deadline, then another. Negotiations are ongoing. Or maybe not?All sites are still bombing. Buildings are falling down. People are dying. After a month of war, there is one thing in the region: chaos.
Maybe this is all part of the US president's strategy. Or maybe that's just the chaotic situation four weeks after the Israeli-American attack on the ayatollahs effect poor preparationwhich preceded Operation Epic Fury. Now, however, Donald Trump has made a decision that could completely change the course of the war and push it in a very dangerous direction.
Americans are flexing their muscles, Iran is expecting an attack
The US president sent several thousand ground troops towards Iran, including 4,500 marines and almost 3,000 servicemen from the 82nd Airborne Division, an elite unit already fighting in Normandy, Vietnam, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq. Trump is also sending two more aircraft carriers to the region (USS Boxer and USS Tripoli). All forces are to be on site in a few days at the latest, and according to the Wall Street Journal, another 10,000 will soon join them. soldiers.
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Few believe that Trump is preparing a massive military mobilization only as an empty threat. Iran expects an imminent land attack, as admitted by the speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on the X platform. Four independent sources close to Trump also confirmed to Axios that the “president of peace”, as Trump once called himself, is currently deciding on a land invasion of Iran.
Americans could appear in these places
The commander-in-chief of the American armed forces apparently hopes to put the Iranian regime out of the game with this move will provide itself with ideal conditions for further negotiations. Three attack scenarios are possible:
Khark Island: : This island, thanks to its deep coastal waters, is ideal for loading large tankers. Iran realizes 90 percent of its business through it. its oil exports, which brings the regime up to $300 million. (approx. PLN 1.1 billion) per day. If the US takes over the island, the ayatollahs' most important source of income will dry up. If Iran destroyed the infrastructure on the island so as not to hand it over to the US, the world economy would plunge into crisis. The effects would be felt quickly – oil prices would also skyrocket in Europe. Capturing the island would be feasible for the American military. However, the most difficult and risky thing would be to maintain it. Khark Island lies only 25 km from the Iranian coast and would certainly come under constant fire.
Larak Island: It is located strategically, allowing control of the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Iran has located bunkers, radars and offensive weapons here, with which it can block maritime traffic in the strait at any time.
Abu Musa Island: This small, 13-kilometer-long island also allows you to control the strait. There has been a dispute over it for years between Iran and the United Arab Emirates – both countries consider it theirs.
In order to put pressure on the regime and be able to declare even partial victory, the US administration seems willing to take the risk of a land invasion on this scale. It would be the first sea landing under intense enemy fire since the attack on Japanese Okinawa in 1945. Human losses would be virtually inevitable.
Between outrage and mockery
The political costs that Trump would have to pay for fallen American soldiers would be enormous. Already, according to a Pew Research Center survey, six in ten Americans oppose the war. If more soldiers die in Trump's Middle East war, the public mood will deteriorate even further.
Donald Trump, president of the United States, during a cabinet meeting. Washington, March 26, 2026PAP/EPA/WILL OLIVER / POOL
Still, the president of the United States actually cannot withdraw without the risk of becoming an object of ridicule not only by the ayatollahs but also by much of the world. It is possible that in the coming weeks it will even take another step and send special forces to Iranian territory to secure approximately 450 kg of uranium that Iran still possesses.
“Nuclear anarchy”. A threat that will not go away
The Ayatollahs enriched this heavy metal to 60 percent. This is enough to create the so-called dirty bombscapable of radioactive contamination of entire cities. And the fact that Iran is able to transport its cargo over long distances was demonstrated by two missile attacks on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, 4,000 km away, which took place last week.
Expert Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology researcher at the University of Oslo, writes on his “Missile Matters” blog that if the US wants to ensure that all enriched uranium is destroyed or seized, there is no alternative to a land invasion.
Paradoxically, after a month of war, the situation in the Middle East looks like this: the more effective the US strikes against the Iranian regime and the more likely it is that various factions of the army or the Revolutionary Guard Corps will try to take power in the country in chaos, the greater the risk that radioactive materials will fall into the wrong hands. Experts talk about “nuclear anarchy”. Diplomacy becomes practically useless in this situation.
Today, an American land invasion remains one of several possible ways of further development of the situation in Iran. However, this may soon turn out to be the case the only chance to stop the global escalation of this dirty war.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
