The growing number of suspicious transactions on the financial market makes experts increasingly talk about the need to carefully examine the mechanisms of information flow between politics and investors.
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One of the most striking examples is crude oil
In this case an unidentified investor or group of investors placed approximately $500 million. on Brent and WTI futures in just one minute — just before Trump announced a five-day delay of attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure.
After the publication of this information, oil prices skyrocketed decreased by 15 percent
The data indicates that within 60 seconds it was rotated contracts corresponding to 13 million barrels, which led to a drop in the price of Brent from $112 to $99. per barrel.
Bets were also placed with bookmakers
Even greater emotions were aroused by the events of February 28, 2026, when the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an attack.
Previously, bets were placed on the development of the situation on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. A total of over USD 529 million. was focused on scenarios related to US and Israeli attacks on Iran, and another USD 150 million. to remove Khamenei from office.
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Analytics firm Bubblemaps pointed out six accounts that made a total of $1.2 million by funding their bets just hours before the attack.
American politicians became interested in the matter. Congressman Mike Levin highlighted a specific bet made just before the start of a military operation.
Suspicious operations on the bond market
Disturbing signals also appeared on the bond market. On February 27, despite higher-than-expected inflation – which usually causes yields to rise – investors massively bought US Treasury bonds.
The yield on 10-year securities fell below 4 percent, which analysts interpret as a reaction to the expected negative macroeconomic event.
On the same day, shares of American airlines also fell, and the Dow Jones US Airlines index lost over 5%.
Speculations around military operations
Similar doubts emerged during the January detention of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by American special forces.
One investor earned approximately PLN 410,000. dollars, betting on his removal from office shortly before the surgery.
Even earlier, in April 2025, anonymous traders made tens of millions of dollars in exchange-traded options just before Trump announced he would halt the tariffs.
The value of some contracts increased almost tenfold in a matter of hours.
The White House denies the allegations
The presidential administration firmly rejects suggestions of possible abuses.
White House spokesman Kush Desai emphasized that applicable law prohibits the use of nonpublic information for financial gain. “Any suggestion that administration officials engage in such activities without evidence is baseless and irresponsible“, he said in an e-mail statement.
