Few EU leaders will miss Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban if he loses elections on April 12 after blocking key policies, including vital aid to Ukraine. However, they do not expect his rival – if elected – to completely change Budapest's approach to Europe, notes Reuters.
Most opinion polls suggest Orban's nationalist Fidesz party, in power since 2010, could lose to Peter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party.
“That was the last straw”
Orban, who maintains friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and is also a close ally of US President Donald Trump, has often angered his EU partners, most recently by blocking a vital €90bn loan to Ukraine.
Hostility towards the Hungarian prime minister grew even more as he had initially agreed to the loan, but changed his mind and used his veto, calling into question the credibility of the European Council, the EU's highest decision-making body.
“That was the final straw,” said one EU diplomat. “For our part, the hope of persuading Orban to come to his senses is gone.”
If Orban loses power, diplomats from several EU governments say they hope it will see an end to Hungary's deadlock on policies ranging from loans to Ukraine to sanctions against Russia and violent Israeli settlers.
If Orban wins and continues to exercise his veto, some officials expect pressure to marginalize Hungary.
“It seems that 'more of the same' is no longer an option for most EU countries,” said former Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins, who spent years negotiating with Orban at EU summits.
“If Orban stays, we will have to change the way we work,” added a senior European official.
“Everyone hopes Orban loses”
The international news agency spoke to more than a dozen current and former officials familiar with Europe's relationship with Hungary about the implications for the EU of next month's elections. Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a member state's domestic politics, many were direct about their frustration with Orban.
“I think everyone hopes Orban loses,” said a second EU diplomat.
European officials have long been concerned about what they see as an erosion of democratic norms in Hungary, as Orban has strengthened his executive power, restricted media freedoms and the activities of NGOs, and run campaigns discrediting the EU and European policies.
Orban denies accusations of eroding democracy, portraying himself as a defender of Europe's traditional Christian values against a liberal elite out of touch with reality.
But the Orban government's close ties to the Kremlin, even after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have led to an even deeper rift between Budapest and many Western capitals.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week that Orban's veto of the loan to Ukraine was an act of “grave disloyalty” that damaged the EU's reputation and ability to act.
The EU is under no illusions about Magyar
Although many in Brussels hope for a new era in relations with Budapest in the event of a Tisza party victory, there is also caution.
Vera Jourova, a former vice-president of the European Commission, told Reuters that an opposition victory would “renew the chance for unity on basic security issues” in the 27-member EU.
But Magyar – who is remembered in Brussels as a skilled negotiator from his time as a Hungarian diplomat – would still remain among the most skeptical voices on migration and the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU, officials say.
“I am under no illusions about Magyar's worldview. We should be careful not to expect too much. The difference will be more in tone than substance,” said a third EU diplomat.
A fourth EU diplomat added: “Magyar comes from the same political family (as Orban), nobody expects a revolution.”
Hungary's position on migration will not change
Magyar has said he wants to anchor Hungary firmly in the EU and NATO and is particularly interested in unlocking most of the roughly 17 billion euros in EU funds allocated to Hungary, which Brussels has frozen because of Orban's refusal to abide by rule of law standards.
Richard Demeny, an analyst at the Budapest-based think tank Political Capital, said: “I don't expect a 180-degree change (from a Magyar-led government) in terms of relations with the EU, but we can expect a more constructive relationship with Brussels.”
An aide to Magyar, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it was true that such a government would not be very different from Orban's administration on migration and EU enlargement.
“But the difference,” the adviser added, “is that Orban used this to blackmail (the EU) and represent Russia's interests. We will represent Hungary's interests.”
