What is the impact of the fuel ordinance adopted by the Government. “The state only simulates the intervention”

The ordinance adopted by the Government on Thursday declaring a crisis situation on the fuel market is almost useless, given that the effects at the pump could be only 5-15 bani/liter, experts say. The government plans to adopt a new set of measures next week, which will include tax cuts, and only then will we see any visible effects on petrol station prices.

“There are times when the state intervenes firmly, assumes costs and changes reality. And there are times — more and more often — when the state only simulates the intervention. This Emergency Ordinance belongs, unequivocally, to the second category. It is not a real economic measure. It is a political gesture wrapped in technical language, designed not to change the market, but to calm public perception,” claims the Intelligent Energy Association, in an analysis.

According to the cited source, the Government is deliberately avoiding measures that would have real effects:

• price capping, which would lead to the risk of shortages
• subsidies, which would lead to massive budgetary cost
• reducing taxes, which would lead to fiscal losses

Instead, the ordinance adopted by the Government is more of an image measure, provides press headlines, creates the appearance of action and buys time, believes the Intelligent Energy Association.

What the normative act provides

The normative act establishes that the average value of the commercial surcharge for gasoline, diesel and crude oil cannot exceed the annual average of the surcharge applied in 2025 by each economic operator.

The definition is an accounting one, the markup representing the difference between the selling prices and the purchase or production cost.

Failure to comply with the ceiling is sanctioned with fines between 0.5% and 1% of the turnover.

How much can the diesel price drop

The energy organization says that, at first glance, the mechanism seems clear if the addition is limited, so prices should also fall.

In reality, however, the way the addition and structure of the oil industry is defined significantly complicates matters.

The analysis shows that capping does not limit the final price, but only the ratio between price and cost. Therefore, if costs rise, prices can rise further and the effect on the consumer is limited.

In concrete terms, of an approximately 30% increase in the price of diesel from the beginning of 2026, approximately 3.75% comes from excise duties, approximately 22% from cost increases and only approx. 2-4% of the addition variation. Therefore, capping attacks a secondary driver of price increases.

If the measure were applied strictly and completely effectively, the possible reduction would be approximately 0.05 – 0.15 lei/l or up to 0.20 lei/l in more optimistic scenarios.

“The effects at the pump will be symbolic”

For his part, the economic analyst Adrian Negrescu states that the definition of the commercial addition requires additional clarifications in order not to leave room for interpretations and especially for the speculative behavior of companies or abusive behavior of the state.

“The effects at the pump will be symbolic, the decisions taken not having the power to influence price dynamics. The state avoided VAT and excise duty for an obvious reason – they are the main sources on which the state budget is based in 2026, in an extremely difficult financial context,” he wrote on Facebook.

At the same time, he believes that the limitation of exports, another measure provided for in the ordinance, could turn like a boomerang against Romania, given that 46% of the reserves are abroad. If other countries follow suit, the effects could be catastrophic in the event of a major fuel crisis.

In his opinion, subsidies granted to everyone represent an “absurd and economically unfounded” idea: “The state has no reason to help the person who has an expensive car and complains about the price of diesel. The correct solution is to direct subsidies only to the categories of businesses that have inflationary potential.”

“As long as the price of oil/diesel prices increase internationally, any solution adopted by the Romanian state other than the reduction of VAT/excise duty is only symbolic, unfortunately,” he added.

How much does a full tank of petrol and diesel cost now?

Gasoline cost below 8 lei per liter before the start of the Iran war and now costs 9.3 lei, so 1.3 lei per liter more.

A full tank of gasoline for a 50 liter tank, for example, now costs 465 lei, compared to 400 lei at the end of February.

For diesel, which is the fuel most used in the economy, the price differences are even greater. A liter of standard diesel sold for 8.4 lei per liter before the war and now it has reached 10.2 lei. Filling up a car with an average tank has now cost 510 lei, 90 lei more.

The government is considering tax cuts next week

Under these conditions, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced that the Government is also discussing the possibility of reducing taxes next week.

“The state will assume its part of the contribution and no additional money collected will remain in the piggy bank of the Romanian state. Not that we don't need this money, but this cost must be shared”, said Bolojan, on Tuesday, to Euronews.

He added that, until now, the state could not intervene with an excise tax reduction, as long as the fuel market has not stabilized, and the consequences of such a reduction cannot be calculated.