Rebellion on the right? Record growth of Grzegorz Braun's party in a new study

If the parliamentary elections were held in mid-February this year, the Civic Coalition would win with 32.5 percent. votes – according to the United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska. PiS could count on 22.7 percent. votes, and Confederation 13 percent.

The study published on Monday shows that 32.5 percent respondents would vote for the Civic Coalition, which means an increase in support by 0.2 percentage points. compared to the previous survey conducted at the turn of January and February this year.

Law and Justice took second place, with support of 22.7 percent. PiS thus recorded a drop in support by 0.8 percentage points. compared to the previous survey. Third place goes to Confederation, for which 13 percent declared they would vote. respondents, which means an increase in support by 1.8 percentage points.

Record growth for Grzegorz Braun's party

According to the survey, there would be five parties in the Sejm. In addition to KO, PiS and Konfederacja, these would also include, among others: representatives of the Confederation of the Polish Crown. Grzegorz Braun's party was chosen by 9.9 percent. respondents, which means an increase in support by 2.2 percentage points. The authors of the survey pointed out that this was the largest increase in support in the ranking. In turn, 8 percent declared support for the Left. respondents (increase by 1.4 percentage points).

The next three parties included in the study are already below the electoral threshold. The Polish People's Party fell the least, achieving 4.8 percent. (decrease in support by 0.1 percentage point). The Razem Party could count on 3.1 percent. votes, which means a drop in support by 0.6 percentage points. Poland 2050, last in the ranking, achieved a result of 2%. support (decrease by 0.1 percentage point).

In turn, 4 percent of the respondents did not indicate their electoral preferences. That's 4 percentage points. fewer indications than in the previous study.

Distribution of seats: The right wing has a chance to form a government

The authors of the study also translated the survey results into a theoretical distribution of 460 seats in the Sejm. According to these data, KO would have 192 seats, PiS would have 128 seats, Konfederacja 64 seats, Konfederacja Korona Polskiej 44 seats, and the Left 32 seats. The survey noted that “a potential coalition of KO and the Left would have 224 votes, which does not give the required majority.”

In turn, the combined forces of PiS and both Confederations would have a total of 236 seats, which would open the way to creating a government on the right – it was added.

The United Surveys by IBRiS study for Wirtualna Polska was conducted on February 13-15, 2026 using the CATI and CAWI methods on a representative group of one thousand people. (PAP)

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