The world's largest economy under pressure from the war with Iran. “Just go to the station”
Wall Street lowers its forecasts for the US economy this year. Analysts estimate that inflation and unemployment will be higher, and the risk of recession is also increasing. “Many elements of the economy will suffer because of this war,” says the analyst.
Goldman Sachs says the risk of economic slowdown in the next 12 months has increased to 30%. as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices and predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6 percent. by the end of 2026 from 4.4 percent in February.
Several companies say inflation will be closer to 3% this year. than 2%, which will consume disposable income and reduce employment.
Even if the fighting ends soon, economists say the damage done will keep the U.S. economy depressed and lower-income job seekers and consumers will continue to struggle.
“Many parts of the economy will suffer from this war,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The effects are visible very quickly,” she added. “Just drive past your local gas station.”
The price of gasoline has increased by more than 30 percent this month. to about $4. per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, the largest increase since Hurricane Katrina in 2005 halted oil production on the Gulf Coast
While tax refunds, boosted by Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” have helped soften the blow, preliminary tax refund data has fallen short of expectations.
In a March 23 report, Morgan Stanley economists estimated returns were 12 percent lower. higher than last year, i.e. below the expected growth of 15-25%. The bank lowered its forecast for consumer spending, forecasting growth of 1.7%. in 2026 instead of 2%.
Source: Bloomberg
