CPN came back and overestimated Orlen. The session was saved by the most expensive shares on the WSE – over PLN 22,000. for the value
The session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange was marked by the results of clothing and copper giants and the depreciation of Orlen caused by the Prime Minister's announcement of the introduction of official fuel prices and a tax on extra profits. The government also wants to reduce VAT on fuel, which will make it earn less, but it is the prices that have scared investors the most. In the background of national events, the US and Israel are fighting against Iran, which is keeping oil prices around $100 per barrel.
Index WIG20 fell by 0.18% on Thursday. Broad WIG decreased by 0.21%. A similar scale of depreciation was recorded by mWIG40, which went down by 0.3 percent, while sWIG80 lost 0.49 percent. The turnover on the broad market amounted to PLN 2.37 billionof which PLN 2 billion concerned WIG20 companies, it is worth noting that 25 percent blue chip turnover was generated by trading on Orlen (PLN 500 million), and 20 percent for LPP (PLN 388 million).
Europe and the USA under pressure
WIG20, taking into account the circumstances described below, looked better than what was happening on key foreign markets, where clearly red dominated. At the close of trading at Książęca, the British FTSE 100 fell by 1.3%, the German DAX lost 1.2% and the French CAC 40 fell by 0.5%.. There was no optimism overseas either
– the S&P500 and technological Nasdaq indexes were under pressure from reports of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
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“Today our mood is rather weak, although not very bad. However, the market is in a very high level of uncertainty and very unpredictable. In recent days, information has appeared that we may be dealing with de-escalation and finding a way to a ceasefire. Unfortunately, this was not confirmed by the facts, so the market began to doubt whether these peace talks are actually being held,” Mariusz Adamiak, director of the market strategies office of PKO BP, told PAP Biznes.
“The stock market has obviously fallen a lot since its peak, but it should be noted that last year the WIG index grew by almost 50 percent, and this year it is still in the black. The mood on the market cannot be called panic. However, investors are certainly anxious about the direction in which the situation will develop,” he said.
Donald Trump wants peace now
The main topic of the day on global markets were reports regarding the US-Iran conflict. President of the USA Donald Trump called on Tehran to conclude an agreement delivered via Pakistan, suggesting that the war should end within weeks. But Iran's tough stancewhich denied negotiations and announced further attacks on US targets, kept the oil market nervous and the price of a barrel of Brent above $100.
“They're bad fighters, but they're great negotiators and they're begging to work out a deal. I don't know if we're going to be able to do it. I don't know if we're ready to do it,” Trump said Thursday during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.
CPN is back in a new version
Older investors remember Central Petroleum Products, abbreviated as CPNwhich was a state monopoly in the fuel industry. In December 1995, it was transformed into a joint-stock company CPN SA. In 1998, it merged with Petrochemia Płock, creating today's Orlen (which along the way absorbed, among others, Energa, Lotos and PGNiG). CPN is back in 2026. along with the government's plans to combat high prices at gas stations.
The Prime Minister announced a reduction in excise duty and VATwhich should overall support Orlen's price due to the effect of maintaining demand, but a key blow for the stock exchange giant turned out to be the announcement of a tax on excess profits and the introduction of maximum fuel prices, which will reduce the company's revenues.
“A solution regarding a tax on excess profits, the so-called windfall tax, is being prepared for oil companies that benefit from the high price of crude oil,” said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
The market reaction was immediatebecause Orlen's shares lost over 6% at one point,
to finally end the day with a decline of 2.21%. State interference in a listed business usually means trouble for the company's shareholders and this case is no different. Although the scale of the decline was reduced, Orlen's declines still weighed most heavily on the Warsaw stock exchange. Suffice it to say that if it weren't for them, WIG20 would have ended the day in positive territory.
Resulting LPP records
This would happen mainly due to the LPP exchange rate (12.69%), which climbed to the historic peak of PLN 22,600 since Thursday. Nominally, these are the most expensive shares on the WSEahead of the shares of companies such as Benefit (PLN 3,475), mBank (PLN 1,073.50) and KRKA (PLN 974). Investors responded enthusiastically to the net profit of PLN 714 million (23 percent above the consensus) and the announcement of a record dividend of PLN 900 per share. Moreover, the company reassured that it did not see any disruptions in supplies from Asia due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Other retailers did well. Dino also regained investor trustgrowing by 1.77 percent, and
Pepco, which, after the publication of revenue data (LFL increase by 4.2% excluding FMCG), increased in price by 3.32%, despite analysts' skeptical comments regarding the pace of new store openings.
The fate of KGHM was completely different. Although the copper giant showed solid results (EBITDA PLN 3.073 billion, above expectations), its shares lost 4.58% and were the weakest in WIG20 that day. This may be related to the general deterioration of sentiment towards the raw materials sector. Copper fell by over 1% on Thursday, but for this silver fell by over 7%. to below $70 per ounce. It is worth recalling, however, that the average silver price realized by KGHM in 2025 was slightly over USD 40 and was almost 42%. higher y/y KGHM also weighed heavily on WIG20 and, even with better behavior of the WIG copper company, it had a chance to break even.
Neuca and the WSE are in decline
There was also a lot going on behind the scenes of blue chips. Text (-4.61%) and. stood out negatively in the mWIG40 index Neuca (-6.18%). In the case of the latter, the declines continued despite the recommendation of a high dividend (PLN 17.8) and better-than-expected results. The WSE also performed poorlylosing 2.24 percent. to PLN 74.15, after Erste Group analysts lowered their recommendation to “reduce”. The target price of the shares was set at PLN 69.9.
The bright spot in the broad market was sWIG80, where dividend-paying companies stood out. Developer Atal rose by 2.29%.. after the publication of great results and the announcement of PLN 4.50 dividend per share. Mennica did even better, recording an increase of 2.86%. Diagnostyka also ended the session with a profit (3.98%), discounting recent acquisitions in the imaging segment.
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