A particularly clear trend is outlined in the context of the location of new investments. Cities with less than 500,000 inhabitants attract the greatest interest of developersconcentrating nearly 228 thousand 700 sq m of commercial space under construction. It's 42 percent More than dedicated throughout 2024 in the centers of this size, when the annual supply amounted to 162 thousand. 500 sq m
The main agglomerations maintain a stable development position with 135 thousand. 500 sq m of commercial space under construction, which indicates the unflagging potential for these markets and constantly adapting the offer to the changing needs of consumers.
Trade parks dominate the market
The trade parks segment shows particularly dynamic development. Objects with an area exceeding 5000 sq m are the dominant part of new investmentsresponsible for nearly 70 percent total space under construction. There is also a noticeable trend of development of smaller commercial formats – projects with an area below 5000 sq m, mainly smaller trade parks, constitute another 10 percent. implemented projects.
The traditional format of shopping malls also maintains activity, responsible for about 10 percent. space under construction. These are primarily modernization and expansion of existing centersamong others Bonarek in Krakow, Pogoria in Dąbrowa Górnicza or Ferio in Konin. Modernization is aimed at not only improving the energy efficiency of facilities, but also a significant extension and diversification of the offer, with particular emphasis on the development of segments gastronomic and entertainment.
International brands discover Poland
– The commercial market in Poland shows diverse development dynamics in many formats – says Bohdan Zayka, Senior Research analist from JLL. – while the commercial parks sector is characterized by intensive development activity, Shopping malls and Mixed-USE projects play a key role in attracting new, foreign brands to the Polish market – adds the expert.
The first quarter of 2025 turned out to be particularly fruitful in terms of opening stores under new signs. 10 new international brands debuted on the Polish market, which confirms the growing attractiveness of Poland as a direction for global retail chains.
– Among the debuts, it is worth highlighting the input of the perfume brand Arabian Oud House, from Dubai and specializing in Arabic fragrances. This brand has chosen a prestigious location at the Norblin factory in Warsaw. The clothing sector also recorded strengthening with the American brand Guess Jeans opening its store at Galeria Wroclavia in Wrocław. In the optical segment, the Grand Optical brand inaugurated its first Premium Salon in Poland in Manufaktura in Łódź – adds expert JLL.
The new supply focuses in smaller centers
In the first quarter of 2025, just over 500,000 sq m of new commercial space was delivered to the market. The vast majority of this area was located in smaller urban centers with a population not exceeding 5,000 inhabitants. Among the largest new projects, M Park Mrągowo stand out with an area of about 15300 sq m, Leroy Merlin in Tarnobrzeg with an area of about 8,400 sq m and here is the Żagań park with an area of about 6000 sq m.
Record investors' activity
After a successful 2024, when the volume of investment in the trading sector reached around EUR 1.6 billion – the best result from 2019, the first quarter of 2025 showed the persistent high interest of investors. The total volume of transaction exceeded EUR 180 million, which is three times the result from the first quarter of 2024. This volume was generated in record 17 transactions.
Commercial parks and convenience centers attracted the greatest attention of investors, responsible for most of the assets sold. The largest transaction was the sale of Power Park Olsztyn, a commercial complex offering almost 33,000 sq m.
JLL estimates that the capitalization rates for the best shopping centers in the first quarter of 2025 are 6.50 percent, while for the best shopping parks they remain at the level of about 7.25 percent, although pressure is expected to reduce them due to growing competition.
