Trump has lost all the tricks up his sleeve. His political career may collapse

Ashley Davis24/03/2026

0 58 5 minutes read

Never bet against Donald Trump – no politician can defy political gravity like this man. His supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and yet he was re-elected president in 2024, winning even more votes than before.

Yet it is difficult to imagine a crisis that could hit his presidency harder than the ill-considered and reckless war with Iran. Even if it is short-lived, it will inevitably change the course of his second term. If it continues for months, it could lead to its collapse. Make that Trump's political career will collapse. The war with Iran weakens three of its political superpowers.

It's about the ability to impose your own vision on the world, the ruthless use of influence and domination in the Republican Party. Even without the Iran war, the strength of these Trump advantages would likely wane after the midterm elections. Armed conflict will accelerate changes.

Accumulating losses

Let's start with the first one – Trump vs. reality. The US president has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to distort facts and, as one might expect, claims that he has already won victory in Iran. However, the situation on the ground speaks for itself. Conventionally, the Iranian regime cannot win. Despite the destruction of Iranian infrastructure and the killing of senior leaders – including the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani – the regime in Tehran survived. Nearly 400 kg of uranium also survived and is practically ready to be turned into a bomb.

Moreover, Iran is waging a parallel war against the global energy industry. When it attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the infrastructure of its neighbors, markets immediately and violently take notice of the effects of these actions. After the Iranian missile attack on the Qatari gas hub, the price of Brent crude oil rose to over $110. (PLN 405) per barrel. For the regime in Tehran, this is the best proof that its strategy is working. And it benefits Iran.

The US and Israel will eventually run out of targets that can be attacked from the air. Optionally, they will run out of supplies of missile batteries that intercept Iranian weapons. Iran, on the other hand, still appears to have a large number of drones. As long as it restricts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, that's it oil prices will rise and the damage to the global economy will increase.

Learned resistance

Trump's second superpower is the ability to influence. Thanks to his aggressive policies, leaders in other countries have become accustomed to brutal treatment — and are learning how to resist it. So when he called on US allies to help him unblock the Strait of Hormuz, they refused – even though he threatened that if they did, NATO would face a “very bad” future.

Similarly, Iran opposes Trump by accumulating pressure against him. In recent days, he has signaled that he will ensure safe passage for ships from friendly countries through the Strait of Hormuz – meaning that intends to use access to the strait as a negotiating tool. Even if Trump wants to end the war, Iran could still fire on ships passing through the strait. If the waterway remains closed until the end of April, the price of oil could rise to $150. (PLN 553) per barrel.

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Given this advantage, Iran may demand more than just a return to its pre-war state. It may demand the lifting of sanctions or a commitment from Americans to leave some bases in the Middle East or contain Israel. If a recession hits the U.S. and stock markets begin to fall, will Trump continue to escalate the conflict, for example by seizing the island of Khark, where Iranian export terminals are located? Or maybe he will give in?

Loss of control

The answer to this question depends partly on his last power: control of the party. Trump was elected on promises to protect voters from war and inflation. So far, 13 American soldiers have been killed in Iran. Potential land operations in Iran to seize uranium or on Khark Island would put many others at risk. Average prices of gasoline and diesel reached $3.88. and $5.09 ($14.31 and PLN 18.77) per gallon, up from $3.11. and $3.72 (PLN 11.47 and PLN 13.72) at the time of Trump's inauguration.

Republican support for the war is strong but waning. A vocal faction within the MAGA movement, most notably Tucker Carlson, is already talking about treason. In off-the-record conversations, many Republicans are furious. The fact that Trump is not heeding warnings about the Strait of Hormuz is typical of his disdain for strategy and the hubris that makes him think he knows better than the people who actually do.

There is a real and high risk that Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. The probability of them losing the Senate also increased by 10 percentage points, to about 50%. The more they fail, the more politically powerless the president will become — and the less influence he will have on who takes over the party.

Donald Trump in Washington, March 20, 2026.Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

If the war in Iran drags on, leading to very high oil prices and falling stock markets, Trump may look for a way out and victory elsewhere — for example, Cuba. Markets would no doubt breathe a sigh of relief if the fighting stopped. However, Trump does not have full control over this war. Iran's attack on the gas center in Qatar shows that the country still has aces up its sleeve.

Even if the fighting ended tomorrow, it could take four to six weeks for oil production to return to pre-war levels, four to eight weeks for oil markets to stabilize, and two months for shipping to normalize. The risk of Iran resuming hostile actions would remain. Prices may remain high for months. Each day like this weakens Trump's position.

His policy is based on the strength of victory. If he looks defeated, expect him to demand revenge. A weakened Trump may become even more dangerous.

A dangerous rematch

Trump has the greatest freedom of action abroad. Maybe abandon NATO. It may cut off Ukraine from American support to punish Europe. It can intimidate Latin America in the name of fighting crime and drugs. He may demand money to defend Japan and South Korea. He may be a maximalist on tariffs. Whether he succeeds or not, it will further weaken U.S. alliances—much to the delight of China and Russia.

However, Trump may also strike at home. He has already supported the idea of withdrawing broadcasting licenses for media that criticize the war. He wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but his war makes that less likely — so expect more of his clashes with the regulator.

He can attack imaginary enemies or send immigration officers to Democrat-run cities. He may threaten to interfere in the midterm elections, either to rile up opponents or to actually influence the results. It is difficult to predict how the US president can emerge victorious from the conflict with Iran. But remember one thing – Trump losing is a very dangerous vision.

Ashley Davis24/03/2026

0 58 5 minutes read