“The crack between Europe and the USA.” It may have disastrous consequences for Ukraine
European governments fear the US president could retaliate against allies for ignoring his requests for help in the Middle East. They are afraid that this may cut off the remnants of American support for Kiev – this is what four EU diplomats familiar with the course of the talks say anonymously.
European leaders want to avoid a permanent break in transatlantic relations. They hope that their offer to provide limited support to Trump in his actions against Tehran will be enough to convince him to continue supporting Ukraine in defending against Russian aggression.
The war in Iran “cannot distract us from the support we provide to Ukraine,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of last week's EU summit in Brussels.
It's easy to see why EU leaders are so concerned.
“NATO IS A PAPER TIGER!” — he wrote in a post on Truth Social over the weekend. “They complain [jego członkowie] to the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but they do not want to help open the Strait of Hormuz… COWARDS. We will remember this,” he concluded.
In the meantime, Moscow made an offer to Washington, further deepening European leaders' concerns about the transatlantic alliance. She offered to stop sharing intelligence with Iran if Washington stopped providing Ukraine with intelligence about Russia.
Although the United States rejected the offer, according to two people familiar with the U.S.-Russia negotiations, the fact that it was made highlights the links between U.S. involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East.
– He's showing up right now crack between Europe and the United Stateswhich, as a staunch pro-American and supporter of transatlanticism, I regret, said the president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, in an interview for the Daily Telegraph. — But it's a reality I have to come to terms with. And of course I try to save what I can.
Bullets like candy
European governments fear the war in Iran is taking up missiles and air defense ammunition that Kiev needs to protect itself from Russia, four EU diplomats told POLITICO on condition of anonymity.
— Of course, there is concern that the Middle East is diverting attention from Ukraine, added a second diplomat from a medium-sized EU country. — Emiratis launch Patriot missiles [do obrony powietrznej] like candy when Ukraine desperately needs it. There cannot be a situation in which the US has enough resources for only one conflict and abandons Ukraine, he added.
Volodymyr Zelensky openly admitted that he had such concerns. On Thursday in an interview with the BBC he said he had a “very bad feeling” as to the impact of the war in the Middle East on Ukraine. He lamented the fact that as the war continues, Washington-led peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow are “constantly postponed” in what the Kremlin calls a “situational pause.”
Limiting the damage
European leaders, including France's Emmanuel Macron, Britain's Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, are stepping up efforts to show they support the US president's goal of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. They do it in different ways.
Macron was more cautious in his public statements, but he was active behind the scenes. During two telephone conversations with Trump before Thursday's meeting of EU leaders, he assured his American counterpart that France would help demine the strait as soon as conditions allow, according to Trump himself and a third EU diplomat who was briefed on the content of the talks.
Early Friday morning, Macron — who has otherwise pledged to send a naval force to the Strait of Hormuz once the war's hot phase subsides — said France was seeking to unblock it through the United Nations. During the European Council meeting, he also stated that Paris intends to “seek the opinion of its main partners” on the submission to the Security Council of a resolution on ensuring freedom of navigation in this key waterway.
One EU diplomat told POLITICO that Trump is not a supporter of the UN but sees the benefits that an appropriate UN Security Council resolution could bring. It could constitute the basis for creating a broader coalition aimed at unblocking the strait.
“It's part of the same effort. We need to show Trump that we are active in the Middle East. This is in our interest, but also in Ukraine's.
For now, such commitments by European leaders remain unclear. Both Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz assured that they had no intention of engaging in a war in Iran. But as one EU diplomat said, when it comes to Trump, “appearances matter – sometimes even more than the actions themselves.”
