Mariia Tsiptsiura, Onet: Mr. Vladimir, I would like to interview you about the processes we are currently observing in Russia, in particular regarding restrictions on the Internet and the situation with Telegram channels. What do you think is the purpose of what is currently happening?
Włodzimierz Fesenko: When assessing Telegram and internet activities in Russia, it is important to consider both strategic intentions and ongoing steps. The strategic intentions have been known for a long time – information restrictions in Russia began not now, but after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine. These are related matters. Elements imitating pseudo-democracy, pseudo-competition and relative freedom of speech have begun to be restricted. At the same time, repressive mechanisms were strengthened.
Strategically, Russia is moving towards authoritarian regimes with severe information restrictions, in particular isolation from global internet networks. Something between Iran and China. It is widely believed that the ultimate target is North Korea in general, especially in the information sense. This may be an exaggeration, but a move in this direction has been discussed for many years.
What is happening now is a confirmation of this strategic course: the creation of the so-called “sovereign Internet”, cutting off from global communications and maximum control of the internal information space.
Why have these activities been actively implemented now?
There are different versions. I don't think there is one specific reason. It was simply decided to implement now what was planned earlier. All the more so because the war against Ukraine is prolonging and internal problems are growing: socio-economic challenges, tensions, factors contributing to conflicts. This obviously worries the Kremlin. Therefore, it was decided to strengthen information control there.
Many were surprised that Telegram was being restricted again – this happened 10 years ago. However, this is currently causing tensions even among pro-government groups, as Telegram is actively used by both state structures and propaganda websites.
Moreover, there are problems for business. In big cities, mobile internet restrictions are hitting services – from taxis to commerce. This also increases tensions.
Russia censors the Internet. An alternative to the state messenger
So it's hard to understand the overall logic of what's happening.
The general logic is simple: the government is afraid of an uncontrolled information environment and an aggravation of the socio-political situation. Therefore, it tries to cleanse the information space as much as possible and take control over it. There is also a local goal – transferring communication to the state-owned messenger “Max”. It is also a tool of total control. After all, propaganda content is imposed there. And it's done in such a way that you can't just give up on them.
Could this be preparation for mass mobilization?
This is one version. Some people think so. But mobilization will cause panic and increased tension, despite difficult access to instant messaging. If communication channels remain uncontrolled, the risk to authorities is greater. Although this risk will surface anyway – cleaning up the internet won't help them. The restriction itself is already causing social tension.
So by trying to reduce the tension, they can only make it stronger?
Yes. A patch in one place and a crack in another. Perhaps this is related to the perspective of mobilization, but it is implemented in such a way that it creates new sources of tension. At the same time, I don't think there is a final decision on mobilization. The talks have been going on since last year. But as long as there is money for contract soldiers, they will most likely not announce total mobilization. However, the topic remains relevant. However, cleaning the information space is a planned policy. They would do it anyway – if not now, then later.
The Kremlin really likes the Chinese model
So the main goal is to limit internal discussions and increase control?
Yes, but not only that. The Kremlin really likes the Chinese model – creating a fully controlled, “sovereign” internet. There are also even more radical examples, such as in Iran. The problem, however, is that people in Russia have already become accustomed to global networks, social media platforms, Telegram and convenient business services. And now this “sweet snack” is being taken away from them. And when something you are used to and comfortable with is taken away, it always causes dissatisfaction.
So there will be negative consequences. This may not lead to immediate acute symptoms, but it will certainly worsen social well-being – especially of the middle class, young people, and residents of large cities.
And what might be the long-term consequences? Will people get used to it in a year? Two?
It's hard to predict. Russian society has already shown that it can get used to even very bad and immoral things, such as the war against Ukraine. They finally accepted it and most support it. This proves that Russians can get used to anything.
When it comes to the internet – people are already starting to adapt and prepare to live with it. Some people will use VPNs, and this market is already large and will grow. They will look for alternative ways to access information. Manifestations of dissatisfaction are also possible, especially among young people. I do not even rule out cyberattacks on the “Max” messenger itself as a form of protest.
As the Soviet experience shows, when something is banned, the desire to have it only increases. Therefore, the demand for tools to circumvent the ban will only increase.
And most importantly, dissatisfaction will grow. It can build up over years or faster – it's hard to predict. However, I have no doubt that in the long run this will backfire on the Russian authorities.
