The number factory: how Romania tries to manage 238,000 foreigners in a system it can no longer count

The National Immigration Strategy 2026-2030 put up for public debate presents impressive statistical data. But behind the impeccable tables hides a real institutional crisis: a migration management system that has quadrupled in five years, a phenomenon of “disguised migration” that corrodes the very logic of work visas, and a country that fully adheres to Schengen without yet building the necessary human infrastructure.

At the end of 2024, the General Inspectorate for Immigration — the central structure that manages the entire phenomenon — was managing the files of 238,097 foreign citizens with the right of legal residence in Romania. 74.5% more than in 2020. The number is growing faster than the state's ability to manage it.

The National Immigration Strategy 2026-2030 — forwarded to the European Commission as part of a community standardization exercise — describes this situation honestly.

Key facts and figures

238,097 – foreigners with legal residence in Romania at the end of 2024

+74.5% – the increase in the number of foreign residents in 5 years

132,347 – employment permit applications registered in 2024

52.6% – from detections of illegal stay – persons who had a work permit

30.4% – from 2024 asylum applications — submitted by workers who held an employment permit

100,000 – the annual quota of foreign workers admitted in 2022-2025

The contingent that exploded

At the base of the entire crisis is a political decision of economic essence: the progressive increase of the quota of foreign workers admitted annually. From 5,500 in 2014, to 30,000 in 2019 and, subsequently, to an annual quota of 100,000 in the period 2022-2025. The decision reflected an indisputable macroeconomic reality: Romania is facing a chronic labor shortage, a consequence of massive emigration and an accelerated aging rate.

But the economic efficiency of supplementing with foreign labor has come with an institutional price that the report quantifies: in 2024, 132,347 applications for employment permits were registered, but only 105,988 permits were issued — that is, only 80% of requests.

The IGI — the less than 1,800-employee structure that manages everything: visas, asylum, integrations, returns, Dublin transfers — has not grown in proportion to the workload. The strategy explicitly recognizes that “capabilities and capabilities” are “undersized”. This is not a self-criticism, but a testimony of an overworked system.

We have good legislation, “above average”, regarding the protection of the rights of foreign workers, but it is not known and, often, not respected, say the experts consulted by Hotnews.ro.

More than 136,000 citizens from outside the EU had residence permits for the purpose of employment in Romania at the end of August this year, most of them coming from Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Moldova and India, and two out of three immigrants live in Bucharest, Ilfov, Constanța, Timiș and Cluj, according to a study carried out by the Economic and Social Council (CES).

mmasked immigration: a Trojan in the visa system

A very interesting chapter is the one describing “disguised migration”.

“A topic that is gaining momentum is masked migration, i.e. legal entry for the purpose of employment or studies followed by non-compliance with the purpose of the trip to Romania or detection of illegal stay on the territory or attempting to cross the border illegally followed by a request for a form of international protection. Thus, more than half of the total detections of illegal stay registered in 2024 were represented by people for whom an employment notice had been issued during 2020-2024. Also, a percentage of 30.4% of the total asylum applications submitted in 2024 were represented by foreigners who had at least one employment permit issued in their name during the period 2020-2024”, says the Strategy.

The mechanism is simple: a foreign citizen requests and obtains an employment permit in Romania. Enter legally. He does not show up at the employer — or he shows up and disappears in a short time. He is later found to be illegally staying or trying to cross the border illegally. Then they apply for international protection. Which must be processed, which can be challenged in court, during which – say the authorities – the person remains on the national territory, most of the time uncontrolled.

The strategy proposes answers: digitalization of the flow of issuing work permits, awareness campaigns to employers, strengthening the operational capacity to control the legality of the stay.

Athe day and the paradox of success

The number of asylum applications fell spectacularly: from 12,368 in 2022 to only 2,467 in 2024, a 75.7% reduction in a single year. At first sight, an administrative triumph. On closer inspection, the picture is more nuanced.

The decrease is largely due not to more efficient management, but to changes in the legal framework: the adoption of temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees moved hundreds of thousands of cases from one “drawer” to another. Since the beginning of the conflict, IGI has issued or reissued residence permits for 162,147 beneficiaries of temporary protection, of which 99% are Ukrainian citizens. The pressure eased on the paper. In reality, it was redistributed.

KEY DATES AND FIGURES

-75.7% decrease in asylum applications in 2024 compared to 2023

37.47% application approval rate in 2024 (compared to 16.74% in 2023)

162,147 beneficiaries of temporary protection (99% Ukrainians)

1,100 places in IGI asylum centers (total capacity)

1,272 foreigners integrated in integration programs in 2024

The strategy proposes the decentralization of integration activities, strengthening the role of local communities, access to education for minors, validation of skills acquired outside the formal system. All correct measures, all borrowed from the standard arsenal of European inclusion policies. But none of them answer the question that the strategy leaves out: where will these people live, what schools will their children attend, and who will bear the cost?

What the strategy does not say

There is a tension in any strategic document between what is written and what is thought. The National Immigration Strategy 2026-2030 is an honest document within its genre. He recognizes the problems, quantifies the phenomena and proposes coherent measures.

But it is silent on several fundamental questions. Don't say how much it costs. The financial impact section of the Background Note is literally blank: the figures in the table are replaced by white spaces. No budget projection for the five years of the strategy. No estimate of required investment in human resources. No quantification of the social cost of integration.

Don't even say how much is too much. It contains the analysis of “disguised migration”, but does not propose a debate on the optimal quota ceiling. It does not ask whether 100,000 employment notices per year is a sustainable number for the existing institutional system or not.

Nor does it explain why return works so hard: of the 2,876 foreigners who were issued a return decision with voluntary departure in 2024, only 48.6% complied. The others—more than half—remained. The strategy mentions the figure. It doesn't analyze why.

ConCluSIonS

The National Strategy on Immigration 2026-2030 is the document in which the Romanian state tacitly acknowledges that it has fallen behind. That he needs more people, more technology, more institutional cooperation, more European funding and more time than he assumed.

What is missing is not the diagnosis. It's the treatment. And the treatment will only be able to be prescribed when Romania is willing to answer a question that it avoids with bureaucratic elegance: how many foreigners can a state that is still building its apparatus effectively manage?

Primary sources: National Strategy on Immigration 2026-2030 (Annex to the Government Decision, approved in 2025), Related Background Note (Ministry of Internal Affairs — General Inspectorate for Immigration).