The political scene is going through a critical moment, and PSD's withdrawal from the current coalition has become an increasingly plausible scenario. Cristian Andrei, director of the Political Rating Agency, explained at length for “Adevărul” the implications of such a scenario.
Sorin Grindeanu. PHOTO: Mediafax
The political analyst notes that within the PSD there is a clear division between those who want to remain in government and those who propose a break. However, he anticipates a rational decision, dictated by the lack of viable alternatives.
“I think that the PSD is divided in terms of leaving the government, between those who are assiduously looking for other forms of government and pushing for the break and destabilization of the agreement after the elections, and those who believe that the PSD has something to gain by remaining at the table of power. It is a power game in the PSD, where some want to force the resettlement of the “table”. I am inclined to believe that the group that wants to remain in government will win, a situation that gives Prime Minister Grindeanu the chance to become prime minister, a formula in which PSD can negotiate and control the government. PSD will want to stay in government – even if they somehow change Bolojan, they will not want to enter the opposition in the long term.” explained Cristian Andrei.
In his opinion, a coalition between PSD and AUR is improbable, given that in such a tandem the social democrats could further dilute their electoral score.
“It is not a party made for the opposition. The PSD leaders who are pushing to break the current coalition will therefore have difficulties to show the members another stable and credible form of government. Who should PSD go with? With which allies and with which prime minister can they go to Cotroceni and accept President Dan? Can they force a change of president in PNL? That is very difficult. Should they get into the AUR boat? At that moment PSD would be diluted even more and for that should AUR still want to support a minority government? I don't think anyone wants to create a prolonged crisis, just to force another political formula. So, as long as the PSD behaves rationally, it cannot convince the members that it has alternatives. emphasizes the analyst.
A minority government, extremely vulnerable
If, in an extreme scenario, the PSD would choose the path of opposition, Romania would enter a period of deep instability, under the conditions in which it would have to be governed by a minority government, whose decisions can be changed in Parliament.
“A scenario with PSD in opposition would actually mean a minority government, because there is no one else to make a majority. A PNL-USR minority government and maybe UDMR would be extremely politically weak and unable to make reforms, they would have to negotiate almost like now with PSD at every step. Parliament would look like a battlefield where populism would be pushed to the maximum, in a competition between who shouts louder, AUR or PSD”. explains the director of the Political Rating Agency.
The economy, the sure victim of political instability
And the impact on the national economy would be immediate. Without a solid majority, the reforms needed to balance the budget would become mission impossible.
“Since no reforms or major decisions could be made, the Government would no longer be able to make large budget adjustments, but it would also no longer be able to raise many taxes. It would be stagnating in the current situation, which means the risk of deficit and probably an economy that will be under the risk of permanent inflation. The biggest problem would be on the credibility side before investors, where a minority government equates to instability and high political and investment risk. Everyone would be cautious to make more investments, so it's a minus for the economy.” shows Cristian Andrei.
Going into opposition would not save PSD
Although the PSD is at historic lows in the confidence of the electorate, a possible withdrawal from the government would not bring back the lost voters, the specialist believes.
“The type of electorate that PSD lost to AUR cannot be recovered in the short term. It is a public that considers itself betrayed by the political class in general and no longer wants to hear from the old parties. Just opposition for the sake of opposition does not help them at all. The only way PSD can rehabilitate itself – in theory, because practically it is almost impossible – is if it brings new figures, with new and credible messages. An entry into the opposition would not be credible in the long term short, but it could even drive away those PSD voters who want the party in power, pragmatic, where to fight and negotiate for them, at least as it does today. Voters would do a simple calculation: if we already have AUR in the opposition, why would we stay next to PSD? The PSD should stay in the opposition for a long time, for years, to regain credibility, to differentiate itself from the years of government. But as long as there is already an AUR at 40% in the opposition, there is not much room. And the promise of a long-term opposition is not something sexy or an offer that any mayor or PSD member will accept. You cannot sell something that is a political sanction – entering the opposition – as a victory. It's counterintuitive and the president who does that will lose power.” concluded Cristian Andrei, director of the Political Rating Agency.
