The conflict between the United States and Iran is growing, and the American leader will finally have to decide what moves to make on the Middle Eastern chessboard. There are a number of scenarios on the table that will determine the further course of the war. The problem is that each of them carries great risk.
At the center of the crisis is Iran's nuclear program and the question of whether Washington will try: destroy it by force, suppress it through covert pressure, or force Tehran to return to negotiations.
The risk for Trump is that the US could be drawn even deeper into a regional conflict that would be extremely difficult to control and highly unpopular at home. Especially since mid-term elections in the US are coming up in November, which may change the balance of power in Washington. And then the American president will have a hard time at home and less room for maneuver, writes “Newsweek.”
The most dramatic solution would be the entry of American ground troops into Iran.
One option is to increase bombing of Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure to further weaken Tehran's ability to develop nuclear weapons.
Last weekend's missile attacks “severely damaged” the Isfahan nuclear facility, according to Iran's state news agency ISNA, while last year saw the largest and most complex attack on Iran's nuclear program in history. The airstrikes were intended to destroy Iran's ability to enrich uranium, necessary to produce nuclear weapons.
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2. Entry of American land forces
A much more dramatic solution would be to send ground forces into Iran. The U.S. has so far relied on airstrikes and naval power, but some officials believe troops on the ground may be necessary to secure or destroy elements of Iran's nuclear program. Trump himself has shown serious interest in the limited deployment of American troops for specific missions.
However, the risk of such a step is huge: Iran is much larger than Iraq, which the US invaded in 2003, and has a strong army.
3. Covert actions and cyber operations
Trump could intensify his secret war against Iran using cyberattacks and intelligence activities. Instead of open military strikes, the US could try to slow down Iran's nuclear program by hacking, sabotage and intelligence operations.
Cyber attacks could target nuclear facilities, military communications systems or energy infrastructure, making it more difficult for Iran to enrich uranium or coordinate its defense. Covert operations could sabotage equipment or disrupt supply chains related to the nuclear program. This is a less risky option, but also less effective.
4. Negotiations with a weakened Iran
Diplomacy is another option. Weeks before the war escalated, the U.S. and Iran participated in indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman and Geneva in January and February in what was seen as a last chance to avoid a military confrontation.
Tehran then entered the talks from a much stronger position, demanding the right to further uranium enrichment and the easing of sanctions – these demands were not met. Today, the balance of power may look different: as a result of intense military attacks and an economic crisis Iran is clearly weaker. This could give Washington the negotiating leverage to demand tighter limits on uranium enrichment, more effective inspections and controls of Iran's missile program.
5. Forceful regime change
The most unpredictable scenario would be to trigger an internal rebellion in Iran, hoping for a change of power. Rather than relying solely on military attacks, this strategy would weaken the government by increasing domestic pressure. However, January protests in Iran were brutally suppressed, leaving tens of thousands of demonstrators dead.
Supporters of regime change say war, sanctions and economic pressure could reignite public discontent. The US could try to increase the pressure through information campaigns, supporting opposition voices or trying to circumvent government censorship. Still, the outcome of such actions remains uncertain. There is no one clear person who could take power, and Iranian authorities have repeatedly shown they are willing to use force to stay in power. Even mass protests may not be enough to topple the regime.
Trump's dilemma
Whichever option Trump chooses, there is a risk that the situation will rapidly spiral out of control and America will be drawn into a long-term war that he will be unable to stop or control.
Expanding airstrikes or sending in ground troops could trigger harsher retaliation from Iran and its regional allies, potentially involving more countries in the conflict. Even diplomacy carries risks – if negotiations fail and tensions rise again.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
