According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture of March 10 this year, world grain production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase by 5.3%, reaching 2.435 billion tons. The greatest increase will be recorded in the harvest of corn (5.4%), wheat (5.2%) and barley (7.6%). The key regions responsible for these increases will be the United States, the European Union, Ukraine and Argentina.
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Higher harvests on the horizon
The greater supply of corn is the result of, among others, harvest growth in the USA by 14.3%, in Ukraine by 14.6%, in Mexico by 11.3%. and in Argentina by 4%. In turn, the increase in wheat production is mainly due to the European Union (17.9%), Argentina (50.2%), Russia (9.7%) and Canada (11.2%). Barley will gain in production mainly thanks to the European Union (11.4%), Australia (23.1%) and Russia (19.4%).
Credit Agricole experts note that although grain prices have shown a downward trend in recent quarters due to the high availability of the raw material, current geopolitical tensions have changed the situation. Rising oil prices drive demand for biofuels, which translates into higher grain prices.
Consumption and stocks up
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that global grain consumption in the 2025/2026 season will increase by 2.8%, reaching 2.399 billion tons. At the same time, global grain stocks are expected to increase by 2.8%, to 600.7 million tons.. However, the stocks/consumption ratio will remain low at 25%, reflecting the growing demand for these raw materials.
Experts emphasize that the current price increases are much smaller than those observed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. “The market is now waiting for the first forecasts for the 2026/2027 season. Indications of lower supply could strengthen the currently observed upward trend,” analysts note.
Predictions for the Polish market
Credit Agricole forecasts that wheat and corn prices in Poland at the end of this year will be approximately PLN 85 and PLN 70 per quintal, respectively, and by 2027 they will increase to PLN 90 and PLN 80 per quintal.
As experts emphasize, the key risk factors for these forecasts are weather conditions among the largest grain producers, the geopolitical situation, as well as the impact of these events on the fertilizer market. Particular attention is paid to developments in the Middle East, which may further destabilize global commodity markets.
