Real estate 2026: Poland is fleeing from its neighbors. Investors are becoming more and more bold in purchasing office buildings

The prospects for the commercial real estate market in Poland in the coming years are positive. However, the issue of the war in Ukraine remains a question mark for the future of the market, says Daniel Bienias, managing director of CBRE in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe.

“The prospects for the commercial real estate market in Poland in the coming years are positive. In terms of economic growth forecasts, we are ahead of the rest of the region's countries. Optimism is also supported by falling interest rates, lower inflation and growing consumption. The issue of the war in Ukraine remains a question mark for the future of the market. If the positive scenario comes true and the conflict ends, we will become a transfer country, which will have a positive impact on both the real estate market and the entire economy,” says Daniel Bienias.

“In terms of the value of transactions on the market, we closed 2025 with a result approximately 10% lower than the previous one, which is the result of a smaller number of spectacular transactions. We have returned to the levels from before 2024. The situation of shortage of the largest capital was taken advantage of by Polish investors who are increasingly bold in investing their funds in commercial real estate,” it added.

According to CBRE Polska, an important event for the market last year was a significant increase in the share of local capital in the investment volume, which for the first time reached almost 20%. This happened despite the lack of solutions supporting local assets, such as REITs.

“The large movement among Polish investors is a good prognosis for the market. Significant investments from entities from the Czech Republic and Hungary are also positive, and we will continue to observe them in 2026.” – says Bienias.

As reported, there is high demand from tenants on the office market. Hybrid work remains, but companies are no longer reducing space. There is already a shortage of offices in central, top locations and this situation will worsen.

According to Daniel Bienias, developer activity remains very limited, and 2-3 new projects a year is now the new norm in Warsaw. With continued high demand, this has a real impact on the need to negotiate office rental agreements in advance, as well as on an increase in rental rates. This prospect of further cost increases, as well as the noticeably decreasing availability of space, are some of the arguments convincing companies to make faster decisions.

Other cities follow Warsaw

“These trends have been visible in Warsaw for some time now, but we are already observing that the region's cities are also following in the footsteps of the capital. With record high demand, record low developer activity and a growing number of facilities intended for conversion in the region, we see the first signals of shrinking availability in the best locations,” added Daniel Bienias.

The demand for warehouse space remains high, and mainly, but not only, entities that are already present on our market are actively negotiating and changing their headquarters. The sector is strongly influenced by the war in Ukraine, the need to secure and improve supply chains and changes in customs duties.

It was pointed out that there are tenants from different parts of the world in Poland who want to take a position on our market by limiting the risk associated with these factors. Investment capital is becoming more and more diversified, they invest, among others, in: companies from France or Canada.

“The retail sector in 2025 was dominated by the further development of retail parks in smaller towns. Demand for centers also remained visible, and in 2026 we expect several transactions involving such facilities. We will also observe more consolidation in the retail park market,” it said.

The dominant trend in trade is “experience retail”. Not only restaurant spaces in shopping centers are developing, but also sports and entertainment spaces. The goal is to encourage customers to spend as much time as possible there and to respond to their growing requirements. We will also be dealing with further modernizations of existing galleries.

In 2026, the housing sector will respond to lower loan costs

It was indicated that sales would grow especially in the medium quality and price segment. The barrier to development for the cheapest segment, where the needs are greatest, is the lack of supporting solutions for ownership construction. The luxury housing market does not depend to such a large extent on the availability of loans, and the choice of apartments in the largest cities is currently wide.

“We are observing investor appetite for student housing. The foundations for the development of this sector are still strong, and the supply of places in dorms is limited, which will result in increasing investment activity in this sector,” says the managing director of CBRE.

There is also demand in the area of ​​senior homes

“This is a sector about which there is a lot of talk in the industry. The market is currently dominated by small local entities, there is a lack of solutions tailored to the diverse needs of customers, including assisted living facilities. However, investors are interested and have funds for the development of new senior projects. We expect intensive development of the market in the next 5 years,” it said.

Daniel Bienias also points out that there is great interest from investors in the data center segment and many talks are underway, but their finalization encounters significant barriers.

“The key challenge remains the limited availability of well-prepared, developed land, as well as energy issues – both the high cost of energy and an unfavorable energy mix. This makes some investors choose other European markets today, where energy is cheaper and more stable. Despite these limitations, Poland remains on the radar of investors from the data center sector. Talks are continuing and it is possible that this market may surprise positively in the next few years,” it added. (PAP Business)

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