Inflation remains above 9% for the seventh consecutive month. How Khamenei and Trump are ruining all of Isărescu's hopes

In February 2026, compared to February 2025, the annual inflation rate drops to 9.3%, the National Institute of Statistics reported on Friday. It is the seventh consecutive month that annual inflation has remained above 9%.

In February 2026, the annual inflation rate, compared to the similar month of the previous year, was 9.31%, with the highest price increases being recorded in services, 11.37%. In the same period of time, the prices of non-food goods increased by 9.41%, and that of food goods by 7.89%.

In the recent Inflation Report, the NBR's calculations estimated a target of 3.9% for the end of this year, but the conflict in the Middle East ruined all the Governor's calculations.

In an opinion sent to HotNews, BRD's chief economist estimates that the war in Iran will add between 0.4 and 3 percentage points to inflation, depending on how long the conflict lasts.

In the temperate scenariowhich implies an increase in the price (compared to the price level before the conflict) of oil by about 10-15% and the price of gas in the EU by about 15-20% in the horizon of the next 3 months. After reaching these price peaks, a period of gradual normalization will be entered. The likely effects on the Romanian economy will be manageable and somewhat in line with most expectations: CPI, adjusted up by 0.4 – 0.6 pp due to the increase in fuel prices, says Libocor.

In the scenario of prolonged tensions in the region (Hormuz area), which corresponds to the situation where the disturbances extend over a horizon of up to 9 months with the related costs. Hypothetical market benchmarks assume an oil price increase of up to 35% and a gas price increase in the EU of up to 50% over the next 2-3 quarters, with shipping rerouting and increased logistics costs.

The likely effects on the Romanian economy will be difficult to manage: CPI, adjusted up by 0.8 – 1.4 pp with the risk of second-round effects in the area of ​​services and food

And in the severe escalation scenario with a significant blockage (shock similar to that of 2022), in which we will witness an increase in the price of oil up to 85% (a price level of about $120 has already been reached, equivalent to a maximum of almost +65%) and a major volatility in the price of gas, the CPI will increase by 2.0 – 3.0 pp, Florian Libocor's analysis shows.

“The draft budget assumes an average inflation rate of 6.5%, which we consider likely to be understated. Our new forecast is around 7.6%, with risks tilted to the upside given the recent rise in oil prices. Taken together, these differences between growth and inflation suggest that nominal GDP growth could reach a value broadly similar to the authorities' assumptions, but with a less favorable mix between the two,” it also says an analysis of ING Bank..

• In food, the biggest price increases were in this interval for coffee, its price increasing by 25.82%. Fresh fruit has risen in price by 16.12% compared to last year, while fruit and fruit preserves are more expensive by 13%. Prices in the group of sugar products, sugar products and honey increased by 13.55%.

• Other substantial increases can be seen in cow's milk, 9.81%, in bread, 10.12%, and in beef, 11.79%, and poultry increased in price by 8.5%. Eggs increased their tariff in this interval by 14.33%. In the category of alcoholic beverages, the price of beer increased, in the last year, by 7.51%, and that of wine by 6.09%.

• Another important increase in tariffs is found in fresh fish, by 8.04%, oil, 8.78%, citrus fruits, 9.94%, and pork increased in price by 3.88%. There are also price reductions in February compared to February 2025 for some food products such as potatoes (-11.82%), beans and other legumes (-4.54%), flour (-2.29%) and sorghum (-1.27%).

• In the services category, the highest price increases in February 2026 compared to the same month in 2025 were recorded as last month in the case of CFR tickets, increasing by 24.40%, followed by those of water, sewer and sanitation by 17.21%, those of hygiene and cosmetics, by 15.94% and those of other industrial services by 15.96%.

• Other significant increases in this category, over the course of a year, were recorded in car repair services, 14.90%, and footwear and clothing manufacturing and repair services, 14.86%. Rents have increased in the last year by 8.52%. At the same time, medical assistance became more expensive by 12.59%, urban transport increased its tariff by 10.02%, and interurban road by 7.99%.

• The only price decrease in this category (services) was recorded in the case of air service tariffs, which decreased compared to the previous year in the period by 2.2%. The rates of the postal services that in the last months had reduced their quotas, this time, in February 2026 compared to the similar month in 2025, increased by 3.08%.

• Among non-food commodities, the most significant price increases in February continue to be those of the electricity tariff, which increased by 56.92%, after the elimination of the support scheme regarding the capping of electricity prices.

• Other tariff increases in this category were recorded for thermal energy (13.41%), for books, newspapers, magazines (10.15%), detergents (9.01%), tobacco and cigarettes (7.47%). Last but not least, medicines also increased their prices in February by 4.18%, and fuels by 4.19%. In the period February 2026 – February 2025, unlike the month before the period, there was only one drop in gas prices by 4.57%.

• Starting from 2026, games of chance are included in the CPI calculation, their rates increasing in February by 1.54% compared to January and by 4.21% compared to December 2025.

It should be noted that in the calculation of inflation starting from August 2025, the termination of the support scheme regarding the capping of electricity prices established by GEO no. 6/2025, with subsequent amendments and additions.