“The increase in energy costs will have a negative impact on consumption in Poland because, firstly, it reduces the purchasing power of households, and secondly, it weakens the already not very strong bargaining position of employees in wage negotiations with employers,” wrote the economists.
“The main engine of the Polish economy this year, i.e. investments, will not slow down, as they have solid sources of financing (including KPO, SAFE in one form or another). Therefore, in our opinion, the GDP slowdown as a result of the war in the Middle East will not be significant. We are correcting our GDP growth forecast for this year from 4.0 to 3.8 percent yoy,” it added.
“Last consequences” of the war in Iran
Pekao economists assume that the current war in the Persian Gulf will have lasting, although not necessarily serious, consequences.
“The Iranian authorities survived the first shelling and are not going anywhere. The Venezuelan scenario will not be repeated. However, the war will lose much of its intensity. Iran has lost its offensive capabilities, and the US is signaling de-escalation,” wrote the economists.
“In our opinion, the Strait of Hormuz will be openedbut it will become permanently more dangerous. A bit like sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, although the traffic decrease will be halved due to the lack of alternative routes to the Persian Gulf countries. We assume that this means an increase in oil prices to USD 70-80 per barrel on average in 2026. Gas prices in Europe will increase to a similar extent (by 25-30%), they added.
Pekao forecasts that this may raise CPI inflation to 2.3%. yoy at the end of 2026
“More expensive fuels and energy In our opinion, they will increase inflation in Poland by 0.4 percentage points. — up to 2.3 percent y/y in December 2026. For the MPC this is not a big problem, so in our opinion, it will resume cutting interest ratesbut only at the turn of the year, once the macroeconomic situation is certain,” economists wrote on the X platform.
“At the end of the year, the NBP rate will be 3.5 percent. Rate cuts in the US are also postponed to autumn, and in our opinion the ECB will abandon them altogether,” they added.
