What is hidden behind the detention of some employees of the Ukrainian state bank in Budapest
The detention of employees of the Ukrainian state bank who were transporting tens of millions of dollars and kilograms of gold in the center of Budapest risks triggering one of the biggest diplomatic scandals between Ukraine and Hungary in recent years. The incident raises serious questions about the motives that would have led Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to resort to an action that Kiev describes as “state blackmail” and about the consequences that this decision could have both for the Budapest leader's domestic policy and for relations with the European Union.
The Hungarians stopped two vehicles transporting values of a Ukrainian state bank/FOTO:X
An unprecedented incident
Diplomatic tensions between Kiev and Budapest have suddenly escalated after the incident in which two cars carrying valuables belonging to the Ukrainian state bank Oschadbank were stopped.
According to Ukrainian authorities, Hungarian law enforcement detained seven Ukrainian citizens and seized large sums of money and precious metals. In the diplomatic environment, the episode is already considered unprecedented in relations between the two states, and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry qualified Budapest's actions as “state terrorism and racketeering.”
What the cashiers were carrying
According to information provided by the bank and Ukrainian diplomacy, the incident took place on March 5. The two vehicles were transporting cash and precious metals in a routine banking operation between Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International and Ukraine's Oschadbank.
In the vehicles were:
-about $40 million in cash
-35 million euros
-9 kilograms of bank gold
After stopping the cars, the contact with the crews was interrupted. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sibiha said that the authorities do not know the reasons for the detention, nor where the bank employees are being held, nor their state of health.
GPS data shows that the vehicles were allegedly taken to a building associated with Hungarian security structures in Budapest. Kiev considers the incident an illegal capture of Ukrainian citizens and confiscation of funds of a state bank.
Ukraine has already sent an official diplomatic note to Budapest and demands the immediate release of the bank employees. At the same time, the authorities in Kiev are taking into account the notification of the European institutions for the legal evaluation of Hungary's actions.
The political context: the conflict between Zelenski and Orbán
The incident occurs against the background of the sharp deterioration of relations between the two states.
Shortly before, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán publicly accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of “blackmail” in the dispute over energy supplies.
At the center of the conflict is the Drujba oil pipeline, through which Russian oil reached Hungary. Budapest has called for transit to resume and has hinted it could apply political pressure if this does not happen.
At the same time, Hungary previously blocked a major European Union financial support package for Ukraine. The situation was further complicated by the statements of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who suggested that Bratislava could block new European loans to Kiev.
Electoral calculations
Ukrainian political scientist Ihor Reiterovici believes that the gesture of the Hungarian authorities primarily has an internal political logic.
According to him, Prime Minister Orbán needs a narrative for his electorate – that he is defending Hungary from the pressures coming from Brussels and Kiev.
“Orbán is building a story for the domestic public: that the European Union and Ukraine are trying to trick the Hungarians and take their money. That's why he announced that he could stop the transit of goods to Ukraine until the flow through the Drujba pipeline is resumed,” the analyst explains.
In his opinion, the case of the bank employees fits perfectly with this rhetoric.
“The message is simple: we will not stand by, we will act and force Ukraine to unblock the pipeline. From a media point of view, it is a show of force,” he says.
However, the expert considers the situation absurd, since the shipment came from Austria and most likely had all the necessary documents.
“It is about the money of a state bank. Most likely, the case will reach the level of the European Union. For Europeans, money is an extremely sensitive subject”, emphasizes Reiterovici.
The elections in Hungary change the calculations
Economist Ivan Us from the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies believes that everything must be analyzed in light of the parliamentary elections in Hungary scheduled for April 12.
According to polls, Orbán's party, Fidesz, risks losing to the opposition Tisza, which would have a considerable advantage in voting intentions.
Under these conditions, the topic of relations with Ukraine is increasingly present in the political discourse in Budapest.
However, the expert believes that Kiev should avoid fueling the conflict.
“It would be best for Ukraine to treat the situation calmly and wait for the election results. Any harsh reaction could be used by Orbán in the election campaign,” says Us.
In his opinion, European discussions about energy imports from Russia are strategically scheduled after the election, precisely to avoid influencing the vote.
A conflict that can end up in court
At the same time, the analyst warns that the incident also raises a practical question: why did the transport pass through Hungary, given the political tensions.
There were other routes, for example through Slovakia, which would have avoided Hungarian territory.
Regardless of the explanation, experts believe the story is far from over. If the situation is not clarified quickly, the case could end up in the European courts.
“The most important thing is that the detained people resist the pressure and return home. After that, it is very possible that this story will continue in the European courts,” concludes Reiterovici.
