Pekao economists assessed that signals from the Gulf countries suggest a longer period needed to restore normal production and export of energy raw materials.
The price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, increases by more than 8 percent on Friday evening. up to $92 per barrel. This is the result of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and signals about the possible suspension of raw material production by the Gulf countries if the conflict becomes prolonged.
The sharp increase in oil prices is already starting to translate into higher prices at gas stations in Poland.
Energy prices have a significant impact on inflation, and after the US and Israel attacked Iran, oil and gas prices began to rise rapidly. This makes inflation forecasts in Poland no longer valid.
How did the war in the Persian Gulf and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affect the forecasts for Poland? According to Pekao economists, they will increase inflation and reduce consumption. “Higher inflation (some time before the shock filters through) and lower consumption,” they estimate.
“Private consumption will be lower than forecast,” they add. What about investments? “This year, the investment growth is driven by idiosyncratic/local factors (local government investments, KPO, etc.), so not much should change in this respect,” we read.
For now, it is not known how large the correction of macroeconomic forecasts for Poland will be.
“It is too early to talk about the scale of possible revisions, because we cannot predict the scenario of the war in Iran. Signals from the Gulf countries, however, suggest a longer period needed to restore normal production and export of energy raw materials,” write Pekao analysts.
