Although CO2 emissions in Germany are falling, the pace of reduction is clearly slowing down. WITHAccording to researchers, new heating regulations may weaken this trend even further.
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German policy and the threat of multi-billion climate “penalties”.
Under EU rules, each member state has a specific CO₂ emissions budget over specific periods for the entire EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. If a country exceeds its limit, it must buy emission rights from other countries.
According to calculations by the think tank Agora Energiewende Germany may pay between EUR 13 and 34 billion for additional emission allowances by 2030. The discrepancy is due to uncertainty about the price of CO₂ certificates – forecasts are EUR 60-150 per tonne.
Öko-Institut analysis indicates that the new GMG may increase the demand for an additional 5-8 megatonnes of CO₂ per year. This would mean another EUR 2-4.5 billion in costs. In total, the bill for unmet climate goals may exceed EUR 40 billion by 2030, or approximately 1%. annual GDP of Germany.
Back to oil and gas
The reform planned by the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition assumes that the installation of new oil and gas boilers will be allowed again. From 2029, energy suppliers would be obliged to add a certain share of “green” gases or fuel oils.
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The problem is that these fuels are limited and expensive. The authors of the reform hope that higher prices will encourage citizens to choose more ecological heating systems. However, experts have doubts – especially in the case of tenants who do not choose the heating source and may incur higher costs.
Risk of legal disputes
Failure to meet climate goals may result in the European Commission initiating proceedings against Germany. According to calculations by the Bundesverband Energieeffiziente Gebäudehülle, possible proceedings could cost up to EUR 70 billion.
Additionally, experts point to possible constitutional problems. In 2021, the Bundesverfassungsgericht ruled that climate protection results from the constitutional right to protect life and health, also of future generations. The government therefore has an obligation to pursue an ambitious climate policy.
The compliance of the reform with EU law also raises concerns. The BBH law firm assessed that the resignation from the so-called 65 percent rule Renewable energy may be problematic from a European perspective. EU regulations require a minimum share of renewable energy in new and modernized buildings.
Also, a lawyer specializing in EU law, Christian Tietje, warned that installing new fossil fuel-based systems in 2026 may conflict with the goal of full climate neutrality in buildings by 2050. In his opinion, a complaint by the European Commission to the Court of Justice of the European Union is even possible.
The bill is to be presented as a government bill by Easter and then submitted to the Bundestag before the summer parliamentary break.
