“The VAT gap in Poland 2000–2025: causes, actions and effects” is a publication of the Institute of Public Finance prepared in cooperation with the Przyjazny Country Foundation.
As we read in “Rz”, the great VAT gap in Poland turns out to be a myth. At the end of 2025, according to the report's authors, it was 6.9%. potential revenues (0.6% of GDP) compared to 10.9%. at the end of 2024 – The lower the gap, the smaller the space for further closing it and for budget “profits”, says Ludwik Kotecki, MPC member and one of the authors of the report, to “Rzeczpospolita”.
The government will not gain billions from the VAT loophole. No more myths
For example, further reduction of the Polish VAT gap to 6.5%. potential inflows, i.e. to the level of the historically lowest median gap in the EU, would bring at most 0.04%. GDP of additional revenues, i.e. approximately PLN 1.5 billion – reports “Rz”.
Read: Emotions surrounding the VAT gap dispute are growing. The Ministry of Finance takes the floor
— Our analysis shows that the state cannot count on generating extraordinary income from closing the VAT gap, comments Konrad Walczyk, IFP expert, deputy director of the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics, and co-author of the report for “Rzeczpospolita”.
— The VAT gap is not only the result of criminal activity, tax fraud, fraud or the existence of the so-called black zone. It is the result of tax avoidance, which is an action consistent with the letter of the law, mistakes made by taxpayers, their bankruptcy, delays in tax payment or tax evasion in various forms, e.g. by hiding part or all of the revenues – notes Konrad Walczyk in “Rz”. — Even the most efficient administration will not eliminate these phenomena completely, he adds.
Read: Experts point to a breakthrough regarding taxes in Poland. “Maturation of changes in recent years”
Ludwik Kotecki points out in “Rz” another important conclusion from the research, i.e. refuting the myth that the VAT gap is resistant to economic factors. It increases in phases of slowdown and crisis (this was the case, for example, after 2008), and falls in periods of good economic conditions. The strong decline in the VAT gap in 2024 and the continuation of this trend in 2025 are related to stronger GDP growth (3% and 3.6%, respectively). Forecasts for 2026 say up to 4%. GDP growth, which will contribute to further reduction of the gap.
