Several factors contribute to the threat to the central government in Iran. In addition to constant military pressure from the US and Israel, attention also needs to be paid to ethnic minorities. “The National Interest” believes that the Israeli-American attack may weaken the central government so much that militias will organize and constitute an alternative to American ground forces.
What ethnic minorities live in Iran?
What threats do ethnic minorities pose to the Iranian authorities?
What are Kurdish fighters planning in Iran?
What are the goals of the Baloch militia Jaish al-Adl?
Not only Kurds. Other minorities are also organizing
Ethnic minorities in IranPAP / PAP
The Kurdish minority itself is internally diverse in terms of the goals it wants to achieve. However, they managed to reach an agreement “to create a coordinated and effective policy framework.” The Iranian regime does not want to escalate the conflict within the country – their preventive fire is limited to Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Baluchi separatist militia Jaish al-Adl is also preparing for a potential confrontation. According to media reports, it was supposed to join with other Baloch groups to create a new coalition called the “Popular Resistance Front”.
Other ethnic minorities do not have adequate resourcesboth financial and human, to pose a real threat to the regime – we read in “National Interest”. Possible objections from Turkey and Pakistan, which are home to large minorities of Kurds and Baluch, respectively, should also be taken into account.
If any group were to secede, the most likely candidates would be the Kurds. National Interest, however, believes that ethnic fragmentation of Iran is now unlikely. Pakistan is itself struggling with the Baloch rebellion in the west of the country, and Türkiye is against supporting Kurdish forces in Iran due to the government's unfavorable approach to this minority.
