The cracks of the American operation in Iran. “They were so incompetent that they left all the military in the bases, thinking they wouldn't be targeted”

As the days pass since the start of the US-Israeli operation in Iran, experts are finding cracks in the strategy. Taking advantage of the fact that the duration of the war was underestimated, the Iranians have a diabolical plan to attack American aircraft carriers, claims political scientist Radu Carp.

American aircraft carriers will be attacked by the Iranian fleet. PHOTO: Getty Images

Le Monde analyzes how the US administration is handling the conflict with Iran, describing the strategy as one of “trial and error”.

The publication highlights the lack of a clear exit plan and the inconsistencies in the political discourse in Washington. Conflicting statements regarding the objectives of military operations are highlighted, as well as the absence of a clear delineation between deterrence, punishment and regime change.

The French newspaper suggests that this strategic ambiguity increases the risk of regional escalation and reduces US diplomatic credibility. Internal tensions within the administration and political pressure on the president, which could influence military decisions, are also analyzed. The conclusion indicates a conflict managed reactively, not strategically, with consequences that are difficult to anticipate.

The Guardian, in an analysis, emphasizes the unpredictability of the conflict and the major risks generated by a military intervention without a coherent long-term strategy.

The author argues that the decision to go to war was made in a tense domestic political context and without a thorough public debate. It is pointed out that the rapid escalation of violence shows an underestimation of the Iranian reaction and the ability of regional actors to turn the conflict into an extended war.

The article also discusses the humanitarian impact, including civilian casualties and the destabilization of regional infrastructure. Internationally, attention is drawn to the deterioration of the US image and the risk of diplomatic isolation. The central message is that a lack of strategic foresight can turn a limited conflict into a global crisis.

Reuters focuses on domestic reactions in the US to how the administration has handled the crisis created by the conflict.

Several American lawmakers criticize the State Department for the lack of a coherent plan to evacuate American citizens from the Middle East, in the context of the suspension of flights and the rapid deterioration of the security situation.

The article highlights delays in communication and conflicting messages regarding the safety of Americans in the region. Government officials say they are working to facilitate voluntary departures, but critics call the response insufficient and late. The text emphasizes that this logistical problem reflects limited preparation for the indirect consequences of the conflict and increases the political pressure on the administration at home.

Radu Carp: “Washington did not correctly estimate the duration of the operation, nor the fact that Iran will attack all the Arab countries in the region”

Political scientist Radu Carp, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Bucharest, correlated all available credible data and concluded that the entire military operation in Iran was planned to last only five days. The estimate was also made based on the ammunition available to the American forces deployed in the area, the professor said.

An optimistic calculation, perhaps accidental, which today seems completely outdated by the evolution of events. “Now it is obvious that it will take longer“, the political scientist claims. Not only is the conflict dragging on, but the final outcome is “still being played out” as the US moves into the theater of impressive actual operations.

The big problem seems to have been one of strategic assessment. “Washington did not correctly estimate the duration of the operation, nor the fact that Iran would attack all Arab countries in the region, even the British Akrotiri base in Cyprus.” The expansion of the front and the multiplication of targets radically changed the initial data of the conflict.

A clear indication of unpreparedness is the late reaction of the American authorities. “The best evidence is that just yesterday the State Department issued the call for US citizens to leave the Middle East as soon as possible.” The natural question remains: “With what?!” Hundreds of thousands of foreign citizens are stuck in the region, and “there are not many solutions to leave the theater of war”.

“They were so incompetent that they left all the military in the bases, thinking they wouldn't be targeted. Guess what, they were!”

Criticism focuses on the team led by Pete Hegseth and Elbridge Colby, characters who, ironically recalled, “they were giving lessons to the Europeans at Davos and Munich”. Their incompetence would have consisted in the fact that “they left all the military in the bases, thinking they wouldn't be targeted. What to see, they really were!”, says the teacher. Moreover, in a gesture considered by some as amateurish, the US military would have been dispersed at the last moment in hotels in cities close to the bases. “We've all seen pictures of Iran targeting these very hotels with missiles and drones.” The question dominating the debates in the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar is simple and unsettling: Where did the Iranians get this information? It is certain, Carp points out, that the anti-aircraft defense of the Gulf states “he did an excellent job”otherwise we could have talked about “several hundred American soldiers missing in action”.

“The plan of the Iranians is diabolical”

Paradoxically, part of the pressure would have been taken over by Israel, which “annihilated Iranian targets with stunning accuracy”indirectly saving the situation created by the Hegseth–Colby tandem. “To make the shame complete, now the Arab states are asking the US for interceptors – and the US has very little to give.”, complete the expert. Emirates and Qatar accuse Washington of prioritizing Israel; Israel does not comment, and the MAGA team “shrugs”, he added.

At sea, the situation is just as tense. “Iran's naval force is almost intact. Only 8 ships have been destroyed, 30 are operational.”, add this one. Moreover, the Iranians would have sent forward wreckage from the 1970s, a bait that the Americans would have “bitten”, consuming an enormous number of missiles to annihilate them.

“The plan of the Iranians is diabolical. Wait for ammunition to run out to activate over 200 light craft (remember the movie Dunkirk?) equipped to harass US aircraft carriers. David vs. Goliath? Something like that. In addition, Iran has an intact submarine fleet protected by favorable geography. The coast of Iran is full of natural hiding places under the rocks.”, explained the teacher.

The strategy would therefore be one of attrition: “short sea battles, simultaneous corvette and submarine attacks, facing an adversary out of ammunition.” Will they succeed? “Let's hope not!”claims Carp.

In the United States, the operation is already mocked under the title “Epic Failure” and, for the moment, it looks like this, comments the professor. However, nothing guarantees an Iranian victory. Israel acts efficiently and methodically, saving its ally – “who would have thought?!”, he says.

There is also a noticeable change in tone in the speech of the team associated with Donald Trump: the war will last, it is no longer about regime change or the annihilation of the Iranian nuclear program, Carp predicts.

The bottom line is clear: for the time being, Israel and the Gulf monarchies are resisting Iran, moreover, retaliating and systematically annihilating it. Meanwhile, the political leadership in Washington is under increasing pressure, and the gap between the original plan and the reality on the ground is becoming harder to ignore.