The conflict between the USA and Iran and fuel prices in Poland. What does the expert predict?
The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, killing its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other senior officials. Tehran responded by launching attacks on Israel and American bases in the region.
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This escalation in tensions has raised concerns about the consequences for global energy markets.
Ph.D. engineer Krzysztof Zięba from the Faculty of Management and Economics of the Gdańsk University of Technology noted that The situation in the Middle East has not yet caused panic on global markets and should not have a significant impact on Polish consumers. The increase in global oil prices caused by the war is noticeable but moderate. The markets partially expected the US strike on Iran, so the price reaction is not shocking.
— We have a several percent increase in raw material prices, but this is not a dramatic or extraordinary phenomenon – he said.
The expert noted that price increases at Polish gas stations are inevitable, but sudden increases should not be expected. The cost of oil must include the impact of the dollar exchange rate, which is strengthening in times of uncertainty, just like gold and other safe assets.
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A scenario in which gasoline would cost PLN eight-nine per liter is unlikely. However, the expert estimates that a price increase of 15-20 percent is possible, depending on the duration of the conflict.
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Krzysztof Zięba added that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, may cause a supply shock on the oil market. One-quarter of the world's crude oil and one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas flows through this route.
It is the main sea route for oil from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq.
After Saturday's attacks by the US and Israel, the Iranian army announced that no units are allowed to enter this water area. Hundreds of tankers were disabled on both sides of it.
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— Blocking the strait will result in significantly less oil. This cannot be fully compensated. Alternative transmission routes exist, but have at most half the strait's capacity. So they will not completely eliminate the problem, said the expert.
China's reaction and global risk
Professor Zięba assessed the risk of a global economic crisis resulting from the current situation in the Middle East as moderate. One factor that significantly increases this risk is the unpredictability of the American administration, and in particular of Donald Trump himself. The effects of tensions depend on three factors: the scale of the conflict, its intensity and duration.
The scientist also drew attention to China's possible reaction. Iran is not only a political ally of Beijing, but also supplies the Middle Kingdom with approximately 10 percent. the country's total oil consumption.
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— If it is true that the Americans attacked the export terminal on the island of Khark, which is responsible for shipping approximately 80 percent Iran's oil is almost entirely purchased by China, Beijing's economic response is most likely, he said.
