Neither Russia nor Ukraine is winning the war that broke out in February 2022. The situation is also unfavorable for Europe and the United States. However, there is one actor for whom the geopolitical outcome is positive: China, commented the Spanish publication El País on Wednesday, according to Rador Radio Romania.
Four years ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighboring country, Ukraine, with several strategic objectives: its subjugation, thus reviving its imperial ambitions and stifling an uncomfortable democratic awakening in a sister nation; stopping NATO expansion; restoring a global prestige based on fear and fracturing the EU.
None of these goals have been achieved, the Spanish publication notes. Ukraine has not been subjugated, the territorial gains are minimal, and the cost to Russia is dire in terms of human lives and severe in economic terms, while Ukrainian identity and its will for independence have been strengthened. NATO expanded by adding Finland and Sweden.
Russia does not enjoy any prestige and is in a position of total subordination to China, on which it depends, the cited analysis also shows. The EU, despite the difficulties and frictions, did not fracture. But Moscow has a significant asset at the moment: the growing divide between the US and Europe. But this is not a result of its military offensive, but rather an independent phenomenon, although it certainly has positive repercussions for them in the conflict. Nothing rules out the possibility that the Russians will eventually win, but that is not the case now.
Ukraine is resisting, but paying a high price
Ukraine doesn't win either. He resisted the onslaught heroically and managed to recover ground remarkably in the first phase of the major invasion. It causes Russia more casualties than it suffers and has adapted its industry to the new requirements. It enjoys persistent European support despite Trump's withdrawal.
But the Russian onslaught is wreaking havoc on the country, morale is strained, corruption scandals are weakening the brave Zelenski and, though outnumbered, his troops have lost ground in the final phase of the conflict.
US and Europe hit by eroding confidence
Spanish journalists claim that the US is suffering serious damage in this conflict. This is not due to the funds invested during the Biden administration to support Kiev, but rather to the erosion of the trust of all its allies in the credibility of Washington. Not only is the United States no longer putting any effort into a conflict where its historic allies have so much at stake, it is also making statements that, for incomprehensible reasons under the guise of national interest, treat the aggressor with extraordinary leniency. The whole world takes note of this.
Europe does not have a positive balance either. It bears the economic burden of supporting Kiev alone and must invest in self-defense funds that could be used for constructive purposes – although deterring aggression is the foundation of all construction. There is fatigue, there is political friction.
China, the indirect beneficiary of the conflict
In this context, China is depicted as the main geopolitical beneficiary of the war. Beijing is the force that keeps Russia's barbaric aggression alive, the Spanish publication claims.
Without the technological and commercial oxygen it provides Russia, the Kremlin could not continue. It does so to maintain a relevant partner in the challenge to Western supremacy and because it also benefits from Europe wasting energy defending Kiev instead of peacefully focusing on being a strong industrial or technological competitor.
In this way, China gets a Russia largely subservient to its plans – and to avoid this problematic situation, the Kremlin dreams of escaping its corner by forming a triangulation with the White House. In exchange for its support, China gets clear benefits from Russia, be it cheap hydrocarbons, know-how in invasions or easy access for its products to an attractive market.
The spectacle of an accommodating US with a country it is holding in its grip, carrying out fruitless negotiations with unqualified representatives and holding strong retorts throughout the process, is a comparative advantage for China. While everyone else falters, China moves forward, maintaining its hypocritical rhetorical equidistant – respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity while acknowledging security concerns – while in reality supporting the aggressor and consolidating its power. It successfully repelled Trump's tariff attack, largely due to the extraordinary power conferred by controlling strategic raw materials. Every month that passes with Russian hemorrhaging, with European efforts and frayed nerves on a destabilized continent, with the US oscillating from one extreme to the other under the eyes of the whole world, is a month in which China gains a comparative advantage, working ingeniously and efficiently in a stable environment. China faces serious problems, including demographics, but the war in Ukraine puts it in a favorable position relative to others.
