Bank presidents forecast an increase in loans. Bank tax remains an obstacle

This year will bring a further increase in loans, there will be great competition on the market, but the attractiveness of the loan offer of domestic banks will be significantly reduced by the bank tax, which may be visible especially when financing large projects – according to the debate of bank presidents during the Banking Forum.

Elżbieta Czetwertyńska, president of Bank Handlowy, pointed out that 2025 brought an increase in loans in the banking sector and in 2026 this positive trend should continue.

“The reasons will be different – economic growth will help us, secondly, we hope that there will be greater international investments, and thirdly, there are more and more Polish companies that are investing and thinking about international expansion, as well as international companies that are still investing in Poland. EU funds and, of course, lower interest rates will help us,” Elżbieta Czetwertyńska said at the Banking Forum.

“I think it will be a good year. All banks are definitely trying, so there will be a lot of competition,” she added.

João Brás Jorge, president of Bank Millennium, assessed that there is potential for a double-digit growth in lending in Poland for 3-5 years, but there are obstacles in the form of bank tax and regulatory challenges regarding mortgage loans.

“I believe that the growth will come from large companies and large projects, and such projects are also attractive for banks that are absent from Poland. If a bank in Poland that is absent and does not pay bank tax wants to play hard on the Polish market, we may not be able to bear it in terms of prices, paying bank tax,” said Przemysław Gdański, president of BNP Paribas Bank Polska.

“There may be a situation where a lot more loans will be pumped into the economy and this dynamics will be positive, but this will not be reflected in Polish banks at all,” he added.

The president of Bank Pekao SA also mentioned the negative impact of the banking tax in the context of the attractiveness of the loan offer.

“We don't feel it yet, but it will probably materialize in the near future that external financing will simply be more attractive,” added Cezary Stypułkowski, president of Bank Pekao.

Michał Gajewski, president of Santander Bank Polska, drew attention to the current pricing policies of some banks.

“There are banks that have a +tough+ private owner and require a return on capital, and if we see the first pricing that does not cover the costs of bank tax, these are things that a private owner will never agree to,” Gajewski said.

Szymon Midera, president of PKO BP, drew attention to the need to extend the periodic fixed interest rate in loan agreements to 8-10 years from the current five years.

“This will allow us to stabilize the legal relationship with clients,” Midera said.

In his opinion, the first loan for young people was based on a periodically fixed interest rate. He also drew attention to the need to raise awareness and educate clients about the interest rate risk and changes in real estate valuation. (PAP Business)

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