US President Donald Trump's policy towards the war in Ukraine in the first year of his second term was full of chaos, contradictions and reversals. This was the result, among others, clashes between various factions within the administration: isolationists, hawks and supporters of returning to business with Russia.
Despite Trump's promises to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, or even before he took office, the war is still going on 13 months later and the US president's approach to it resembled a sine wave. This chaos was largely a reflection of internal disputes within the administrationdivided between at least three factions: those favoring reduced involvement in Europe (e.g. towards Asia), traditional anti-Russian hawks, and the “businessmen” closest to the president who support a return to doing business with Russia.
Vance's Restraints
In the initial phase of Trump's presidency, the first camp, associated with Vice President JD Vance, dominated. As the New York Times wrote in December, this group, including: from officials holding key positions in the Pentagon – including the deputy head of the Pentagon Elbridge Colby or the Minister of Land Forces Dan Driscoll – contributed to interruptions in arms supplies to Kiev, which one top American officer described as a “de facto anti-Ukrainian policy.” Vance himself played a leading role in a public argument with Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last February
The activities of this group – known as “restrainers” or “prioritizers” – supported by the head of the Pentagon Pete Hegsethwere to result in multiple supply interruptions, including an over three-month interruption in artillery ammunition supplies during the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk in Donbas. The argument raised by Colby and others was the need to preserve weapons and ammunition stocks for the US, especially in the face of potential threats in the Indo-Pacific.
Kellog's hawks
From the very beginning, the group associated with Vance also fought against the influence of the “hawks”, focused mainly around Trump's long-time advisor, General Keith Kellogg. Trump originally appointed him the role of special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, but Kellogg was quickly sidelined and his formal role was reduced to special envoy for Ukraine. As the Wall Street Journal wrote, this happened, among others, due to the efforts of the Kremlin, which perceived Kellogg – whose daughter Meaghan Mobbs was involved in helping Ukraine – as too anti-Russian. Tucker Carlson, a pro-Russian publicist who was friends with Vance, also played a role in marginalizing the general.
According to the New York Times, Kellogg allegedly presented himself in a conversation with Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland Radosław Sikorski at the 2025 conference in Munich as Europe's “best friend” in administration. His critics in the Pentagon claimed that Kellogg was presenting himself at the time as “a holding back front against all these isolationists” in the administration.
– Some tried to sideline him because they considered him too “pro-Ukrainian”, because he was telling the truth, that Putin would have to be dragged to the negotiating table by force – a person close to the general told PAP.
As a representative of Ukrainian diplomacy told PAP at the time, Kellogg's shares in the White House also temporarily increased in early autumn, when, after a conversation with Zelensky in New York, Trump assessed that Ukraine could regain all of its territory and threatened Russia with sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
Next to Kellogg – who left the administration at the end of last year. – the hawk faction also includes the Minister of Finance Scott Bessentwho advocated sanctions against Russia and a raw materials agreement with Ukraine, and in a speech to Congress called Vladimir Putin a war criminal. According to the New York Times, supporters of support for Ukraine also included the former commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, and CIA director John Ratcliffe, who was said to have quietly supported the actions of the Ukrainians and helped them conduct a severe campaign of strikes against Russian refineries, which, according to analyzes, would cost Russia $75 million. daily.
The Witkoff issue
Every rhetorical and political turn of the president against Russia and in favor of Ukraine was followed by a reversal in the other direction. This was the result of the actions of the party closest to the president, gathered around Trump's long-time friend Steve Witkoff. Witkoff, who, like Trump, comes from the real estate industry, was originally appointed envoy for the Middle East, but very quickly – with the support of the Kremlin – became a leading figure in talks with Russia.
As described by the Wall Street Journal, Witkoff – later joined by the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner – was most susceptible to the Kremlin's prospects of lucrative business in Russia after concluding the agreement. Trump's envoy has repeatedly praised Putin for his honesty and worked closely with his main interlocutor on the Russian side – the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev – to create a controversial peace plan involving far-reaching territorial concessions for Ukraine and a return to doing business with Russia.
According to a transcript of Witkoff's conversation with Putin's adviser Yuri Ushakov from October last year, published by Bloomberg, Witkoff also contributed to Trump giving up the idea of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Just before meeting with Zelensky on the topic, Witkoff advised Ushakov to get Putin to talk to Trump, giving him tips on how to approach the president. The conversation took place shortly thereafter, and Trump decided not to send the Tomahawks.
Lobbying of businessmen
According to “WSJ”, apart from Witkoff, a number of other businessmen lobbied for a return to business with Russia. A donor to the Trump campaign, an investor, is said to be willing to take over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline StephenLynchwho paid PLN 600,000. hole. a lobbyist associated with the president's son, Donald Jr., to obtain a license for this deal. Another friend of Donald Jr., a businessman Gentry Beachis to conduct talks on the purchase of shares in a gas extraction project in the Russian Arctic. In turn, the deputy director of ExxonMobil was to negotiate with the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin in Qatar, to return to investing in the large Sakhalin 2 project. This project was suspended due to sanctions imposed in 2022. ExxonMobil, investor Todd Boehly and others were also supposed to talk about purchasing the assets of Lukoil, which is subject to sanctions.
Their efforts have so far yielded no results, just as the White House's 13-month diplomatic efforts have yielded no results. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio – who has not played a major role in this process so far – claims that the start of peace talks was a breakthrough, even he, after a year of efforts, is unable to determine whether Russia is serious about the negotiations.
– I don't know if the Russians seriously want to end this war (…) However, we will continue to test it – he declared during the Munich Security Conference.
From Washington Oskar Górzyński (PAP)
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