Sales of apartments by developers will increase in 2026, and the entire real estate sector has good prospects. The oversupply of ready-made premises on the market is temporary and illusory, analysts said. However, the situation regarding the expansion of the offer or pricing policy may vary in individual cities.
Analysts predict sales growth for developers
“We are optimistic when it comes to developers' sales this year. This will be driven, among others, by a drop in interest rates, and customers who have been postponing the purchase of an apartment or who did not have creditworthiness will return to the market. We assume an increase in sales volumes in most companies,” Maciej Wewiórski, an analyst at DM BOŚ, told PAP Biznes.
“We expect sales growth in the entire market by approx. 14-16%. – we do not think that even the upcoming rate cuts will permanently shift demand on the primary market to levels e.g. from 2020-2021. An increase in sales volumes is possible organically – we believe that the share of the largest developers in the structure of new land purchases increased significantly in the last two years, therefore the largest entities will be responsible for the majority of new project launches,” said Trigon DM analyst David Sharma.
According to the DM BOŚ analyst, the companies are prepared for higher sales and will introduce more apartments to their offer, but it will not be a quick process because the market is not homogeneous.
Illusory oversupply of premises?
“Some agglomerations, such as Katowice and Łódź, are struggling with an oversupply of ready-made apartments, which may dampen developers' ambitions to launch a large number of projects. On the other hand, in Warsaw or Tricity, the supply and demand situation is more balanced. However, I do not think that such an imbalance will translate into a change in developers' strategies – the imbalance is temporary,” he said.
In Wewiórski's opinion, the current wide offer is the result of the first three quarters of 2025 being weaker than expected by developers, because no state support program appeared then.
“However, oversupply will not be a problem and the offer will be snapped up quite quickly. However, a problem for the market may be investors who bought due to price increases or as a capital investment, and who are currently less active. Apartments bought by investors in 2023 under the BK2% program brought a fairly good rate of return on rental, for which demand was high. However, I expect that investment demand will be replaced by customers buying apartments for their own needs,” he added.
The Trigon DM analyst believes that the first quarter of 2026 is the “peak” of the level of the available offer, due to the fact that some smaller entities currently no longer have land resources/balance sheet allowing the launch of new projects. In his opinion, the excess supply is illusory.
“Most of the offers, especially those of smaller players, are simply unsaleable at current prices. However, developers are increasingly diversifying geographically, I assume that many of them have an appetite for smaller and larger acquisitions – we do not think that taking over land +second-hand+ is currently an optimal business decision, the key is to take over an entire organization that understands the rules of the local market,” added Sharma.
In the opinion of the Trigon DM analyst, developers' sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 were in line with expectations – the better business situation of the largest players – i.e. those who are able to constantly supplement their offer with projects in the largest cities (Warsaw, Kraków, Tricity) – was not surprising either.
The DM BOŚ analyst pointed to the December data as a positive surprise in terms of sales. He does not expect price shocks on the market.
“Apartment sales accelerated significantly in the fourth quarter, and thanks to discounts, developers made up for the relatively weak earlier quarters of 2025 and came closer to the assumed targets. December in particular was a positive surprise in terms of sales. We also had declines in transaction prices, but taking into account the increase in wages in real terms and the decline in interest rates, I do not expect either a further decline in apartment prices or increases above inflation. The market will regain balance, there are no shocks on the horizon, but rather support from the side of falling interest rates, macro data, or real wage growth,” Wewiórski said.
As noted by the Trigon DM analyst, pricing policy is another area that confirms that a homogeneous primary market does not exist.
“In some of its parts, e.g. in projects located in the best locations in Warsaw or Krakow, we assume price increases in 2026. In the case of +economic+ projects on smaller markets, in our opinion, developers will be increasingly forced to aggressively pursue customers,” added Sharma.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR WITH GOOD PROSPECTS
Analysts are unanimous in their attitude towards the sector and believe that it has good prospects.
“We maintain a positive attitude towards the companies we cover – the larger ones should gain market share at the expense of the smaller ones, while Archicom has been our top pick for a long time – according to our estimates, the group should improve its net profit by up to 4-5 times this year, and it also has an interesting pipeline of projects to be implemented, which should allow for further scaling of sales volumes,” said Sharma.
“The real estate sector has good prospects and should perform better than the general market in 2026. The December sales results were a positive surprise and although January was slightly worse, we are convinced that we will see sales records in several companies this year – e.g. Dom Development has a chance, in my opinion, to achieve 5,000 units sold in 2026. The vast majority of developers will improve their sales this year,” Wewiórski added.
*** Data on apartment sales are available in the Real Estate module, available to subscribers of the PAP Biznes Economic Service.
(PAP Business)
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