As the American “The New York Times” writes, Western European military and services predict that Vladimir Putin's soldiers will need about 18 more months to occupy the entire Donbas, and each subsequent day of the conflict strengthens the Russians' negotiating position.
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Experts estimate. This is how long Vladimir Putin needs to take Donbas
Therefore, the Trump administration is simultaneously attacking Russia's “shadow fleet” and deepening Russia's economic problems. At the same time, Washington is sending signals about possible American investments in the event of a ceasefire or an agreement on the invasion.
“Some analysts estimate that in such conditions Putin could conclude an agreement to stop the fighting, especially if it meant a broad rapprochement with the US and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the rest of Donbas,” writes the American newspaper.
Analysts from the American Institute for War Studies (ISW) see the fall of Donbas in a similar way. Jessica Sobieski and Jennie Olmsted predict in an interview with RBC Ukraina that it is unlikely that Russia will manage to occupy the entire Donetsk Oblast and the fortification belt earlier than in 2027–2028. There is one condition: foreign partners must still support Ukraine and provide it with assistance.
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Why is Donbas a key region for Russia and Ukraine?
Donbas is a key region for Kiev's economy located on the eastern borders of Ukraine. Before the invasion, it was one of the country's most important coalfields. Most of the country's resources of thermal coal and anthracite, important for the operation of power plants, are concentrated here. Before the war, the region was responsible for much of the production of steel, coke, machinery, chemicals and energy.
The Donbass region is marked in red
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Leftcry / public domain / wikipedia
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The region, consisting of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, was inhabited by over 6.6 million people before the invasion. Pre-war estimates showed that approximately 38 percent of them identified as ethnic Russians.
