Romania is starting to “close the door” on employment. The discrete signal from the INS digits

Industry cuts, trade freezes, HoReCa recruits: Romania is divided into several labor markets, according to the data transmitted by the INS on Thursday.

In the last months of 2025, companies were looking to hire fewer people than in the fall; the number of job vacancies was 28,400, less by more than 3,300 than in the fall, Statistica says.

In parallel, the vacancy rate (ie the share of unfilled positions in the total number of positions in the economy) dropped to 0.55%.

Why does declining job vacancies matter?

Because vacancies are one of the best “early warning” indicators of the economy.

Usually, when the economy is doing well, companies hire and vacancies increase. When the economy slows, companies freeze hiring and vacancies drop.

INS figures suggest that many companies became more cautious towards the end of the year.

Where are the greatest employment needs?

In Q4 2025, the highest vacancy rates were in: energy and utilities (1.86%), public administration (1.19%), professional, scientific and technical activities (1.03%).

These fields have two things in common: they are either strategic sectors (energy) or sectors where the shortage of personnel is chronic (the state).

The industry paradox: many vacancies, but low rate

INS shows that more than 15% of the total vacancies are in the manufacturing industry (4.4 thousand), but the rate is only 0.42%.

This says something very important: the industry is a huge sector in terms of the number of employees, which although it has thousands of vacancies, they represent a small share of the total.

In other words: the industry needs people, but is no longer hiring aggressively.

The state holds a quarter of all vacancies

One of the strongest messages of the INS press release is this: The budgetary sector accounts for about a fourth of the total number of vacancies.

Specifically: there are 3200 in public administration, 2800 in health and social assistance and 1100 in education

This suggests that the shortage of staff in public systems has not been solved, and the state continues to be one of the biggest “potential employers”.

Where the labor market is almost “frozen”?

The lowest vacancy rates are in: real estate transactions (0.17%), other service activities (0.18%), extractive industry (0.21%).

These fields also had the fewest vacancies: less than 100 in each.

Here the message is clear: there are sectors in which they do not engage, there is no pressure to expand or the activity is small and very stable.

What has changed compared to Q3 2025?

The biggest decliners in the rate (ie, firms cut back on hiring) are: finance and insurance (-0.29 pp), administrative and support services (-0.18 pp) and manufacturing (-0.15 pp)

The biggest decreases in the number of positions are in the manufacturing industry (-1.6 thousand), support services (-0.6 thousand) and commerce (-0.6 thousand)

Basically, industry + trade + support services are exactly the “engine” of employment in the economy.
When they decrease, it's not a statistical detail: it's a cooling signal.

There are also areas where the demand for people has grown strongly

The most relevant annual increases occur in energy and utilities (+0.34 pp; +0.2 thousand), professional, scientific and technical activities (+0.30 pp; +0.5 thousand) and construction (+0.15 pp; +0.7 thousand)

In other words: Romania is cutting jobs in the “consumer” (trade) economy, but still needs people in investment and infrastructure.

Vacancies are a kind of “barometer” for wage growth, inflationary pressures, the bargaining power of employees and the direction of the economy.

When vacancies fall, wages tend to grow more slowly, firms become more cautious, hiring becomes more selective, and the economy may enter a slowdown.

And this signal comes before it is clearly seen in the unemployment data.

INS data from the fourth quarter of 2025 describe a market that gradually reduces its appetite for employment, concentrates its needs in a few key sectors (energy, state), begins to “turn off the tap” in industry, trade and support services.

In short: the economy is slowing down, and the labor market is feeling it first.