Fuel prices in Poland have been systematically falling for nine weeks. However, e-petrol experts note that the last reduction, recorded at the end of January, was possible mainly due to retailers giving up part of the margin. Wholesale prices started to increase already in the middle of the month. “Rising crude oil prices may soon end this downward trend,” analysts said.
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Fuel prices. Stabilization in wholesale
Wholesale fuel prices in Poland remained relatively stable last week. The strong zloty limited the impact of rising oil prices on global markets. According to e-petrol data, a cubic meter of 95-octane gasoline wholesale cost PLN 4,299.20, which is PLN 10 more than a week earlier. In the case of diesel oil, the price increased by PLN 10.20, reaching PLN 4,596.40 per cubic meter.
Further price declines were recorded at gas stations in Poland. EU95 petrol and diesel became cheaper by 5 groszy per liter, and the average prices were PLN 5.59/l and PLN 5.93/l, respectively. The price of autogas also dropped minimally, by 1 grosz, to an average of PLN 2.67/l.
Fuel prices in February. Possible raises
Experts warn that the beginning of February may bring the end of falling fuel prices. The forecast price ranges presented by e-petrol indicate that EU95 petrol may cost from PLN 5.53 to PLN 5.64/l, diesel from PLN 5.90 to PLN 6.01/l, and autogas from PLN 2.65 to PLN 2.72/l.
Fuel prices. Oil prices are rising, geopolitics is increasing tensions
On world markets, the price of oil has reached $70. per barrel, which, according to analysts, results from the so-called high geopolitical premium. “The market continues to discount the risk of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East,” experts note. The risk associated with Iran's announcement to temporarily close the Strait of Hormuz on February 1-2 in connection with military exercises is particularly significant. Approximately 20% of the world flows through this key transport route. global oil supplies and over a third of global LNG trade. Even short-term disruptions in this region can significantly impact the global market balance.
Additionally, disruptions in oil production in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela reduced global supply in January by about 1.5 million barrels per day. Further restrictions may result from Arctic frosts in the US, which could reduce global production by 340,000 tonnes. barrels per day.
Hope in the easing of sanctions on Venezuela
A factor that may ease supply pressure is the easing of US sanctions on Venezuela. This decision enabled American companies to trade oil from this country, which may stabilize the situation on the energy raw materials market to some extent.
