Dozens of US ships and fighter jets near Iran: Intimidation and strike options ahead of Geneva nuclear talks

The US military is mobilizing air and naval forces in the Middle East to intimidate Tehran and prepare attack options in the event of the failure of Tuesday's talks in Geneva, according to CNN. Although Donald Trump claims that regime change “would be the best thing”, US officials admit that “no one knows” who would take power in Iran.

United Kingdom Air Force assets are being repositioned closer to the Middle East, including refueling aircraft and fighter jets, CNN writes citing sources familiar with the moves.

The U.S. also continues to send air defense systems to the region, according to a U.S. official, and several U.S. military units stationed in the region, which were to be withdrawn in the coming weeks, have been given mission extensions.

Public flight tracking data shows more than 250 US cargo flights have delivered military equipment to Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.

In parallel, satellite images confirm the positioning of 12 F-15 attack aircraft at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, after several aircraft received diplomatic authorization to access the airspace on Friday evening.

For weeks, Donald Trump has been threatening Iran with military action, warning that he will order an attack if the killing of protesters does not stop. On Friday, the US president said regime change “would be the best thing that could happen” in Iran.

The military mobilization and claims of regime change have put the region on alert ahead of Tuesday's talks in Geneva, which Donald Trump has announced he will attend “indirectly”. The US delegation to Switzerland will be led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran will be represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The talks in Geneva are aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program as President Trump calls for a complete halt to uranium enrichment.

“No one knows” who would take over

The US administration does not appear to have a clear vision of succession in the event of the ouster of the Iranian regime, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told Congress that “nobody knows” who would take over if the government in Tehran were to collapse.

US intelligence services warn that the collapse of the regime could leave power in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, a radical group that could be even more problematic for the US.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “is certainly prominent and operates above the standard military bureaucracy, but it's hard to predict exactly what would happen in a regime collapse scenario,” said a source familiar with recent US intelligence reports on the matter.

Unlike the situation in Venezuela, US officials have not identified a viable replacement for Iran's supreme leader in the event of regime change.

A military intervention during the recent protests in Iran could have supported regime change, but there are doubts whether the attacks launched now can have the same impact. Currently, the main reason for a potential attack has become Iran's refusal to stop enriching uranium.

Donald Trump has warned that the failure of the talks will mean a “very bad day” for Tehran, according to sources familiar with the assessments.

If last month military resources were concentrated in the Caribbean, the US now has the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle groups in the region. This concentration gives the Pentagon expanded attack options: destroyers and submarines can launch dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,600 kilometers, while F-35 and F-15E jets are equipped with bombs and guided missiles.

“If we don't get a deal, we're going to need them,” Trump said Friday when asked why Ford was moving to the region.

Potential targets of the attacks include IRGC headquarters and other military installations outside of Iran's nuclear sites, according to multiple sources. In parallel, joint operations between the US and Israel, similar to last summer's “Operation Midnight Hammer”, when Iranian nuclear facilities were struck at the end of the 12-day conflict, are being considered.

“It is difficult to make a deal with Iran”

“I don't want any kind of enrichment,” Donald Trump said over the weekend, indicating he would not accept a deal that would allow Iran to enrich even a low level of uranium.

Given Tehran's position, which considers enrichment to be its right, the sources quoted by CNN warn that the room for negotiations may be non-existent. The same sources state, however, that hard positions can always change.

There are other ways the Iranian government could try to prevent a US attack, including through economic incentives, the American publication notes. Previous rounds of negotiations have discussed possible trade deals, including giving the US privileged access to Iran's oil, gas and rare metals resources. This topic is expected to be brought up again in the new negotiations.

Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear agency, met with Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Monday for what both described as “in-depth technical discussions”. The meeting came as preparations for Tuesday's crucial nuclear talks intensify.

Trump prefers a diplomatic solution, Marco Rubio claimed Monday, during a press conference in Budapest, but stressed that an agreement will be difficult to achieve. “These people make political decisions based on pure theology,” Rubio said, referring to the radical clerics who rule Iran and make negotiations extremely complicated.

Asked Sunday in Slovakia whether the administration would notify Congress in the event of an attack, Rubio did not commit to a clear answer. “We will abide by the law in place and it depends on the circumstances that would lead to it. But at this point we are talking about negotiations,” the US official said, adding that if the situation changes, “it will be obvious to everyone.”

Regional allies, including Gulf Arab states, are deeply concerned that US military action could destabilize the region and are pushing for more time for diplomacy. “Everybody opposes an attack,” a diplomat in the region told CNN, noting that Israel was the only actor urging the United States to attack.

Meanwhile, Iran held new military exercises less than 24 hours before the Geneva talks. On Monday, the Islamic Republic of Iran's official TV channel reported that the IRGC had launched a “courageous defense” of three Iranian islands by land, air and sea that are the subject of a long-running border dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

IRGC drones are positioned at the southernmost point of Iran, ready to take on “any aggressors,” the official report said.

The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, warned on Sunday that “Trump should know that he is entering a confrontation that will teach him hard lessons, the result of which will be that he will no longer threaten the whole world,” according to state broadcaster Press TV.