As Coface states in its report, up to 6,566 companies declared insolvency. It's a number by 17.8 percent higher than in 2024
Polish economy. Where do the problems of some companies come from?
Experts estimate that most of the difficulties the Polish economy encountered in 2025 were external. The year started with escalation of trade wars — high customs duties and prolonged uncertainty as to the final shape of customs policy continue to have a strong impact on our exports.
Customs-related struggles also have other, less direct, consequences. Chinese exporters, who faced high tariffs in the US market, redirected much of their overproduction to European Union countriesthus exerting strong competitive pressure on European producers.
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It still remains important stagnation in Germanybecause this country is Poland's largest trading partner. It is worth adding that it also had an impact on the high number of insolvent companies greater awareness of entrepreneurswho are increasingly choosing restructuring proceedings instead of bankruptcy proceedings.
Poland has a two-speed economy
— Despite unfavorable external conditions, Poland remained the fastest growing large economy in the European Union and advanced to the group of the 20 largest economies in the world. This resilience was possible thanks to the relatively large internal market and the highly diversified geographical and commodity structure of Polish exports, says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, chief economist at Coface in Poland and the Central and Eastern European Region.
— Unfortunately, the general improvement in the economic situation was not able to offset the growing difficulties in terms of costs faced by Polish enterprises. Wage growth, although it slowed down significantly during the year, still exceeded the growth in productivity in the economy. As a result, the financial results and average sales profitability of companies remained below the levels from 2022-2023, the expert adds.
Insolvency in industries
The sectors that will suffer the most in 2025 are services and construction. The first of them has the largest share in the total number of insolvency cases (1,859 enterprises, or 28% of the total number of insolvencies). The second one still records one of the highest y/y dynamics (1,155 enterprises, 18% of the total number of insolvencies).
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— Production sectors were certainly negatively affected by events on global markets, including the weakening economic situation in the euro zone, the inflow of imported goods – mainly from Asia – and turbulence in foreign trade caused by customs wars initiated by the US – says Paweł Tobis, vice-president of Coface. — On the other hand, the role of a high cost base should be noted – the effect of changes in wages and an increase in fixed costs, which largely contributes to the problems of entrepreneurs from sectors such as trade and services – explains the expert.
What awaits Polish companies in 2026?
Experts from Coface indicate that the number of insolvencies in the coming months will be largely shaped by the growing share of restructuring in insolvency proceedings. This means that in 2026, the number of enterprises with liquidity problems will probably increase to approximately 7,500 cases. However, thanks to a favorable macroeconomic environment, the dynamics of this growth should significantly slow down compared to the years 2023-2025.
What about the condition of the Polish economy? — In 2026, we can count on relatively high economic growth dynamics. According to our forecasts, the GDP growth rate will accelerate to 3.8%. The main driver of growth will probably be investments, while additional support for our economy should come from abroad this time. Fiscal spending in Germany should gradually revive the local economy and at the same time stimulate demand for Polish exporters, predicts Dr. Mateusz Dadej.
— The key question for 2026 is whether we will remain in a two-speed economy. Last year showed that the relationship between GDP growth dynamics and the financial condition of enterprises is no longer as simple and direct as it used to be. However, there are several factors that allow us to be moderately optimistic about the improvement in the situation of companies – especially on the cost side. Wage dynamics should continue to slow down significantly and approach productivity growth. Currently, there is also a favorable downward trend in the prices of energy raw materials, and the cost of external financing is clearly lower than in 2025, the expert concludes.
