The supply crisis on the RAM market, driven by the gigantic spending of the AI and data center sectors, will not improve in the near future and may last at least a year – analysts and industry representatives estimate. In the first quarter of 2026, contract prices for PC DRAM memory may increase by a record 100%.
Dominik Niszcz, an analyst at Trigon DM, points out that the increase in memory prices results from a large increase in demand for equipment related to, among others, with the spending of leaders of the US technology sector.
“The companies that benefit the most from this were among several best-behaving entities in the entire S&P 500 index last year. These include hard drive producers Western Digital and Seagate Technology, and producers of RAM (Micron Technology) and NAND memory (SanDisk),” Dominik Niszcz told PAP Biznes.
He pointed out that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also stood out on the global market. At the same time, he reminded about the cyclical nature of the semiconductor business.
“In the last decade, there were several periods with strong but short-lived increases in the prices of producers of selected components, e.g. related to the expansion of data centers. However, the current situation may last longer,” he said.
The Trigon DM analyst points out that from the perspective of Polish IT companies, rising prices mean pressure on customers, but usually help maintain margins.
“To a lesser extent, these are our own investments in the expansion of computing power – we do not have typical data center operators on the WSE, and for example, in the case of telecoms or larger IT companies, these are not significant amounts on a group scale,” said Dominik Niszcz.
Integrators such as Asseco and Comp carry out partial hardware projects, which today involves the risk of delays and higher costs.
“Hardware shortages may therefore increase the cost and extend the implementation time of some projects, as well as delay customer investment decisions. Asseco focuses on selling higher-margin services and licenses, not hardware. I assume that any margin fluctuations related to hardware prices will not be large in the case of these companies and should be rather temporary, and higher costs will be passed on to the final recipient in the medium term,” said the Trigon DM analyst.
Marcin Lebiecki, vice president of Asseco Cloud, told PAP Biznes that in the face of rising prices of IT components, limited availability of RAM and extended delivery times, more and more companies perceive cloud providers and data center operators not only as a cost alternative, but above all as strategic partners ensuring scalability and business continuity.
He pointed out that this problem is now global and results from, among others, from periodic disruptions in supply chains and dynamic growth in demand for IT infrastructure.
“In the context of NIS2 regulations, more and more emphasis is placed on the operational resilience of the organization – high availability of services, disaster recovery and the ability to quickly restore environments. The cloud, properly designed and compliant with the regulatory requirements set by KSC, becomes the foundation of business stability in times of hardware uncertainty,” said Marcin Lebiecki.
In his opinion, the current situation may continue in the medium term, and the data center industry will increasingly move towards effective resource sharing, virtualization and better use of existing reserves.
“In cloud environments, RAM and other resources are dynamically allocated, which allows customers to avoid costly hardware investments and respond faster to changing business needs,” he added.
In mid-January, HP announced that in 2026 the Polish computer hardware market will grow, but the availability of components, mainly memory chips, will be a challenge.
“We initially assume that the Polish market will grow next year. It will be a single-digit growth, but there will still be growth. The only question mark – regarding this growth – is the availability of components, mainly memory chips (RAM modules). This is a hot topic now – firstly, we have a significant increase in prices, and secondly, there are some problems with availability,” Paweł Miszkiewicz, director of the partner channel at HP Inc Polska, told PAP Biznes.
“So it may be that in 2026 this increase will be limited because there will not be full availability,” he added.
AB, a distributor of IT equipment, household appliances, RTV, GSM and toys, announced at a conference at the end of January that the price increase related to the shortage of memory modules is an impulse for the IT distribution industry.
“We have a very strong lack of availability of memory modules. (…) Why do I think this is positive for AB? Because everyone knows that the price will increase day by day, which means that if someone plans purchases, they will make them faster. (…) So it is positive for our industry,” said Zbigniew Mądry, COO, vice-president of the AB group.
According to specialists, the lack of access to a sufficient number of memory modules will last at least a year, perhaps about a year and a half.
A February 2026 study of the memory industry by TrendForce indicates that continued demand from the AI and data center sectors in the first quarter of 2026 is exacerbating the global imbalance between supply and demand, thereby increasing the bargaining power of suppliers in setting prices.
As a result, TrendForce has significantly increased its price forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 for both DRAM (a type of volatile random-access RAM used as main memory in computers, servers and smartphones – note) and NAND Flash (data storage technology that does not require power to retain information – note) products.
The forecast quarter-on-quarter increase in conventional DRAM contract prices has been revised upwards from previous estimates of 55-60%. to the current 90-95 percent Similarly, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to increase from 33-38%. up to 55-60 percent It was indicated that further upward corrections were possible.
TrendForce reported that PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, leading to a widespread shortage of PC DRAM memory. Even the largest OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) with guaranteed allocations from memory suppliers are seeing declining inventories.
“In a reseller-dominated market driving contract price increases, PC DRAM prices are expected to increase more than 100% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, setting a new record for quarterly price jumps,” it said.
According to TrendForce data, data centers – both conventional ones and those dedicated to AI – will consume over 70 percent in 2026. high-end memory chips produced by all manufacturers.
According to the Wall Street Journal report “The Global Memory-Chip Shortage Will Cost Us All”, the hardware crisis that has driven up the prices of consumer electronics is not going to end any time soon.
Memory chips typically remain in the shadow of the semiconductor industry compared to the CPUs and GPUs they serve. Still, making them requires many of the same cutting-edge technologies that currently power Nvidia and its manufacturing partner TSMC, much to the detriment of once mighty Intel.
Artificial intelligence is also more demanding: Nvidia's latest systems support up to 288 gigabytes of HBM memory for each individual logic chip, while smartphones typically have 8 GB and laptops 16 GB. Because HBM is a more profitable business, consumer electronics manufacturers have to fight each other for leftovers.
“Although the rapid price increase will continue for now, it is difficult to assess the price level of memory chips after mid-2027,” said MS Hwang, research director at Counterpoint Research, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
He pointed out that they will soon be considered one of the most expensive components in the device, and their share in the total cost of producing phones and other gadgets will increase from below 10 percent. up to 30 percent
“As AI companies claim more and more production capacity, the question becomes: How much will other manufacturers have to pay for memory? There is no limit,” Hwang said.
Micron Technology, an American company in the computer memory industry, decided at the end of 2025 to withdraw from the consumer business of the Crucial brand, which includes the end of sales of the brand's products at key retailers, online stores and distributors around the world.
“AI-driven data center growth has led to a surge in demand for memory and storage. Micron has made the difficult decision to exit Crucial's consumer business to improve supply and support for our larger, strategic customers in faster-growing segments,” said Sumit Sadana, vice president and chief business officer at Micron Technology.
“We are currently observing a massive expansion of data centers, and the share of the corporate market in the total market volume has grown from 30-35 percent, to 40 percent, to 50-60 percent. This segment requires a much larger number of bits than before, and the entire industry is struggling with shortages,” said Christopher Moore, vice president of Micron Technology.
Anna Lalek (PAP Biznes)
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