Prof. Masala: Europe is not threatened by German hegemony because Berlin will not have nuclear weapons
Concerns about the reconstruction of the German army are exaggerated, because Germany is not and will not be a nuclear power – told PAP prof. Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Germany's war expenses are increasing
Politico magazine reported that the withdrawal of American forces from Europe may be smaller than feared and only concern part of the rotational forces. Meanwhile, in line with last year's announcement by Chancellor Friedrich Merz to build the “strongest conventional army” in Europe, in the face of the Russian threat and weakening US involvement, Germany's defense spending is increasing.
In 2025, the German military budget was fourth in the world, and by 2029, according to Reuters, the army will receive up to EUR 162 billion annually, which is more than twice as much as last year.
Germany's remilitarization may raise concerns among its neighbors
Liana Fix in Foreign Affairs pointed out on February 6 that Germany's remilitarization may raise concerns among its neighbors.
“Berlin's unchecked military domination in Europe may ultimately lead to divisions, rivalries and fragmentation of the military power of the Old Continent,” Fix wrote.
However, according to Carl Masala, professor of security and defense policy at the Bundeswehr University in Munich and participant of the Munich Security Conference that starts on Friday, Concerns about Germany's remilitarization are 'ridiculous'. As he explained to PAP, “you cannot be a European military hegemon without nuclear weapons.”
– And we won't have it. Germany has no intention of buying or producing nuclear weapons because it sticks to the treaties, emphasized Masala and recalled the provisions of the Two Plus Four Treaty of 1990, the signing of which opened the way to German unification.
Treaty restrictions
This treaty imposed restrictions on the German army, prohibiting Berlin from, among other things, possession of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
Germany is only talking to a few European countries, primarily France (which, along with the US, Russia, China and Great Britain, has nuclear weapons – PAP) about “how to extend French nuclear deterrence to the rest of Europe,” the expert noted.
The 1990 agreement enabling unification also placed limits on the size of the German army. According to the provisions of the treaty, the Bundeswehr may not exceed 370,000. soldiers.
According to Masala, it is because of these provisions that the German conventional army, according to current plans, is to number 260,000. soldiers.
– So we will probably have a very modern, conventional army, but Poles also create such an army. I would like to remind you that Polish defense spending in recent years has reached 5%. GDP and we still spend 2.4%. Masala noted.
According to data provided to defence24 by the Polish Ministry of National Defense in January this year. The professional army numbers approximately 162,000. people, including approximately 155.5 thousand professional soldiers and 6.5 thousand professional soldiers undergoing training. However, there are ambitious plans to increase the size of the army. The General Staff of the Polish Army announces that by 2039 the Polish armed forces will number 500,000. soldiers, including 200 thousand reservists.
Concerns in Poland and France
Masala also assured that Germany undertakes most initiatives in the field of military procurement in a bilateral or multilateral manner, which, in his opinion, should alleviate distrust towards German plans to strengthen the army. Masala noticed concerns about them only in Poland and France.
– Most Central and Eastern European countries demand a stronger military role for Germany. Italians and Spaniards agree with this. Only Poles and French have concerns, which of course I understand from a historical point of view, admitted Masala.
When asked about the possibility of the Russia-friendly, far-right AfD party, whose politicians post revisionist content towards Polish territories on social media, coming to power in Germany, Masala replied that he “sees the risk.”
– This is a nightmare scenario also for Germany, but we cannot wait until after the elections, because what is the alternative? Do nothing when Europe is threatened by Russia and America turns its back on us, said the expert. He added that without a strong Germany, Europe will not be able to deter Russia.
He also noted that there are also other dangerous electoral scenarios in Europe, e.g. Marine Le Pen winning the presidential elections in France. To the comment that France did not invade Poland like Nazi Germany did, Masala responded by asking whether Poles “really believe that Germany could invade them again.”
In his opinion, Europeans concerned about German remilitarization must decide whether they want “a weak Germany that will not be able to deter Russia, or a stronger Germany, fully embedded in the European integration structure, thanks to which it will be possible to deter Russia.” He added that Europe also needs a militarily strong Poland and other European countries “to meet the challenges ahead of us.”
Last June, the German Chancellor promised to build the strongest conventional army on the Old Continent. He emphasized that this should result from the fact that Germany is the most populous and economically strongest country in Europe, and Germany's friends and partners “expect and even demand it.”
Anna Gwozdowska (PAP)
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